WeatherFanatics: Who Will Have A White Christmas This Year?

Friday, December 25, 2015

Who Will Have A White Christmas This Year?

December 25,2015
Christmas is here, and much of the country is not seeing a white Christmas, outside of portions of the mountain West.
Our latest white Christmas forecast is shown on the map below. Meteorologists define a "white Christmas" as one on which there is at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn't have to be snowing on the holiday for that to happen, of course.
This year, we have one of the strongest El Niños of record in play. That and a persistently warm East and Midwest, along with a cold, wet West, is setting the table for what we will see Christmas morning.
(EL NIÑO: Typical Impact on White Christmas | One of Strongest on Record)

White Christmas Forecast

East of the Rockies, only northern Maine and locations near the Canadian border in the Midwest have a likely chance to see a White Christmas. In the West, snow should be plentiful for many locations in the mountains and some valleys.
(OUTLOOKS: Winter's 5 Big Questions | Your Typically Snowiest Month)
Now let's take a look at where a white Christmas is seen most often.
Let's start with an animation from NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, showing satellite-estimated snow cover on Christmas Day since these analyses began in 2003.

Estimated snow cover on Christmas morning from 2003-2014.

Based on our latest forecast, this Christmas may have the least snow cover in New England in at least 13 years. Christmas 2006 and 2004 had rather paltry New England snowcover, but at least the high country had some snow.
For example, Caribou, Maine, has failed to have a white Christmas only six times since 1940, most recently in 2010, but also in 2006, 2001, 1998, 1973 and 1957.
Incredibly, even snowy Marquette, Michigan, may struggle to keep one inch of Christmas morning snow cover this year.
At the National Weather Service in nearby Negaunee Township, where official records are taken, this had only happened twice before since 1961, in 2006 and 1994.
The map below indicates where there is the best chance for a white Christmas in any given year, based on climatological averages over the last three decades. The northern states and the higher elevations, of course, have the best chance to have at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
(MORE: 5 Weirdest White Christmases)

This map shows the chance of a white Christmas based on historical data. This is not a forecast for Christmas 2015.

Below are regional views of the white Christmas historical probabilities.
You may be surprised to see some northern cities probabilities are not higher. December warm spells, a lack of early-season snowfall or a pre-Christmas rain can leave dormant grass showing on Christmas morning in some years.