Tropical Storm Hilda May Become a Hurricane in the Pacific

August 7,2015

Highlights:

• After forming Thursday morning, Hilda quickly strengthened Thursday afternoon and now has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Hilda originally formed as Tropical Depression Ten-E late Wednesday night.
• The center of Hilda was more than 1,300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as of Friday morning.
• Tropical Storm Hilda is expected to strengthen for a time as it moves west-northwest and could become a hurricane by the weekend.
• Hilda is expected to remain out over open water over the next five days, eventually turning more towards the northwest. Increasing wind shear is likely about three or four days from now, which would cause Hilda to weaken.
• It remains too soon to tell whether Hilda will impact Hawaii sometime mid-late next week. The latest thinking suggests Hilda may turn well northeast of Hawaii and weaken, due to aforementioned wind shear.

(MORE: Typhoon Threatens Taiwan | Hurricane Central)

The Latest Status, Forecast Path and Infrared Satellite Maps

Latest Information and Infrared Satellite

Projected Path

Virtually every system approaching Hawaii from the east since 1950 tracking at least as far north as the latitude of the Big Island of Hawaii eventually weakened to a tropical storm or depression by the time it reached the islands.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
We discussed the reasoning behind this in a piece written in August 2014.
Last August, Iselle became only the second tropical storm to landfall on the Big Island dating to 1950, after strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.
Incidentally, hurricanes Julio and Ana also passed near the Hawaiian Islands in 2014. Ana was one of only four hurricanes since 1950 to pass within 150 nautical miles of Honolulu, dumping locally heavy rain and generating high surf.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry says 17 tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm intensity have tracked within 100 nautical miles of Hawaii dating to 1950. Three of those -- Tropical Storm Flossie (2013), Tropical Storm Iselle (2014) and Hurricane Ana (2014) -- have done so since 2013.
This may not be the season's last named storm to gain Hawaii's attention.
NOAA's 2015 central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
MORE: Hurricanes By the Numbers (PHOTOS)