Erika to Soak Florida Despite Weakening Over Cuba

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 29,2015; 11:55PM,EDT

 

While Erika has weakened to a tropical rainstorm, Florida will still become the target of potentially flooding downpours during the final days of August and start of September.
Erika lost its battle with the mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean and strong wind shear on Saturday morning.
The concern for Erika to strengthen into a hurricane was greater when it appeared that the system would track north of the Caribbean Islands to the Bahamas and Florida. However, Erika maintained a more westward track and was shredded apart by the mountains of Hispaniola.

Erika Weakens to a Tropical Rainstorm

The once-tropical storm is now a tropical rainstorm and is only trackable via a surge of tropical moisture from the Caribbean to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the remains of Erika for any potential for it to reorganize over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the first part of next week.
The warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and less wind shear could support re-development, but this would not happen quickly due to Erika's current state. The potential for any reorganization will end at midweek when the remains of Erika push inland.

Regardless of Erika losing its tropical storm status, its flood danger has not lessened.
Flooding downpours will continue to spread from Cuba to Florida, grazing the Bahamas in the process. In addition to flash flooding, additional mudslides are a serious concern in the mountains of Cuba.
Due to Erika weakening, widespread damaging winds are not expected to accompany the downpours. That will change along Florida's west coast if Erika regains strength. The same can also be said for an isolated tornado risk.
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Downpours are already soaking parts of Florida to start the weekend due to the presence of an old frontal boundary. The arrival of Erika's moisture will only enhance these downpours on Sunday across the peninsula.
Additional bursts of heavy rain will follow through the first part of the new week across Florida as more tropical moisture streams in. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected with localized amounts of up to 8 inches, especially at the coast.
The flash flood threat will further heighten as the ground becomes saturated with such heavy rounds of downpours.

Cities at risk for the downpours as August transitions to September include Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Tallahassee.
Even if flooding does not ensue, the heavy rain will pose risks to motorists by reducing visibility and heightening the risk of vehicles hydroplaning at highway speeds. Airline passengers should prepare for possible delays, while vacationers may be forced to alter outdoor plans.
There will be one benefit to the downpours--drought relief. That is especially true for South Florida where an extreme drought is underway. Fort Lauderdale has received only 36 percent of the 30.58 inches of rain that should typically fall from May 1 to Aug. 28.
Beachgoers who decide to brave the rain in the Florida Keys and along the state's eastern coast should be advised for rough surf and rip currents as a gusty onshore wind blows during the final days of August.
While seas will be slightly elevated in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, hazards to swimmers and operators of small craft will be limited unless Erika manages to re-organize next week.
North of Florida, the interaction with Erika's moisture and the old frontal boundary will also extend the risk for localized flooding downpours to southern Georgia and places near the coast of the Carolinas.

Major Flooding From Erika Sweeps Roseau, Dominica

Despite never strengthening into a hurricane, Erika still turned deadly across the Caribbean by unleashing torrential rain.
The Associated Press reports that at least 20 people are dead in the Caribbean with nearly 50 other people missing on the island of Dominica, where flooding and mudslides led to catastrophic conditions.
Canefield Airport on Dominica recorded 12.69 inches of rain in 24 hours on Thursday with nearly 9 inches falling in six hours.
The Caribbean islands were in need of rain to dust the drought that unfolded this summer, but such totals in a short span of time definitely proved to be costly to lives and property.
The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency reports major damage to roadways and bridges in Dominica, causing communities to be cut off.
In Puerto Rico, more than 200,000 people lost power. Crop damage across the island totaled more than $16 million, according to the Associated Press.
The departure of Erika and its moisture will allow spottier showers and thunderstorms to return to the Caribbean for the start of the new week.

Farther to the east, the AccuWeather Hurricane Center is monitoring a new threat brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. An area of low pressure that just emerged from the African coast will likely become the next named storm in the upcoming days.
"The window for any development with this low will be short from late this weekend and early next week, but it could ramp up pretty quickly into a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.
"During the middle of the new week, the system will move into an area of stronger wind shear and drier air," he said. "That will help to weaken it."

Prior to weakening, the system could still target the Cape Verde Islands with damaging winds, flooding rain and rough seas.
Travis added that the system will not cross the Atlantic as pose another danger to the Caribbean, like Danny and Erika, due to the weakening that will take place at midweek.