Erika to Soak Florida Despite Weakening Over Cuba

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 29,2015; 11:55AM,EDT

 

 

 

While Erika has weakened to a tropical rainstorm, downpours will still spread from Hispaniola and Cuba to Florida as August transitions to September.
Erika lost its battle with the mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean and strong wind shear on Saturday morning.
The concern for Erika to strengthen into a hurricane was greater when it appeared that the system would track north of the Caribbean Islands to the Bahamas and Florida. However, Erika maintained a more westward track and was shredded apart by the mountains of Hispaniola.

The once-tropical storm is now a tropical rainstorm and is only trackable via a surge of tropical moisture from the Caribbean to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the remains of Erika for any potential for it to reorganize over the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.
The warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the absence of strong wind shear could support re-development, but this would not happen quickly due to Erika's current state.
Regardless of Erika losing its tropical storm status, its flood danger has not lessened.
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Flooding downpours will continue to spread from Hispaniola and Cuba to Florida, grazing the Bahamas in the process. In addition to flash flooding, additional mudslides are a serious concern in the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Due to Erika weakening, widespread damaging winds are not expected to accompany the downpours.
Downpours are already soaking parts of Florida to start the weekend due to the presence of an old frontal boundary. The arrival of Erika's moisture will only enhance these downpours on Sunday across the peninsula.
Additional bursts of heavy rain will follow through the first part of the next week across Florida as more tropical moisture streams in, potentially leading to localized rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches.

The flash flood threat will further heighten as the ground becomes saturated with such heavy rounds of downpours.
Cities at risk for the downpours as August transitions to September include Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Tallahassee.
Even if flooding does not ensue, the heavy rain will pose risks to motorists by reducing visibility and heightening the risk of vehicles hydroplaning at highway speeds. Airline passengers should prepare for possible delays, while vacationers may be forced to alter outdoor plans.
Beachgoers who decide to brave the rain in the Florida Keys and along the state's eastern coast should be advised for rough surf and rip currents as a gusty onshore wind blows during the final days of August.
While seas will be slightly elevated in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, hazards to swimmers and operators of small craft will be limited unless Erika manages to re-organize next week.
North of Florida, the interaction with Erika's moisture and the old frontal boundary will also extend the risk for localized flooding downpours to southern Georgia and places near the coast of the Carolinas.

Major Flooding From Erika Sweeps Roseau, Dominica

Despite never strengthening into a hurricane, Erika still turned deadly across the Caribbean by unleashing torrential rain.
The Associated Press reports that at least 20 people are dead in the Caribbean with another 31 people missing on the island of Dominica, where flooding and mudslides led to catastrophic conditions.