Hurricane Ignacio Passing Well North of Hawaii

August 31,2015

Highlights:

• Hurricane Ignacio was located roughly 365 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii, as of 5 p.m. Monday evening, Hawaii time.
• At one point Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Ignacio was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Kilo and Jimena.
• The center of Ignacio will pass north of Hawaii through midweek.
• The tropical storm watch has been discontinued for the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui County.
• Dangerous surf and rip currents will affect the east and southeast facing shores of Hawaii through early week. High surf warnings and advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service.

Latest Storm Information

Ignacio reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane this past weekend and is now weakening.
(MAP: Follow Hurricane Ignacio with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)
The weakening trend will continue over the next few days as it moves north of the Hawaiian Islands and is due to an increase in wind shear and slightly cooler water temperatures. The increase in wind shear is thanks to the proximity of the subtropical jet over the Hawaiian Islands. As Ignacio gains latitude, it will likely face increased shear, which tends to push convection away from the center of tropical cyclones.

Another Hawaii Threat?

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued for the Big Island and Maui County.
Over the next few days, Ignacio will track northwest. Computer forecast models have been fairly consistent with a track north of the Hawaiian Islands through midweek.
However, some outer rainbands may produce locally heavy rainfall at least in the eastern Hawaiian Islands into Tuesday, particularly over mauka (mountain) locations.
Dangerous surf will propagate to the east and southeast facing shores of Hawaii, particularly the Big Island and Maui, early this week. High surf warnings are posted for the Hawaiian Islands as surf will increase to 10 to 15 feet on Tuesday.
(FORECAST: Hilo | Maui | Honolulu)
Several tropical systems have threatened Hawaii over the past few weeks, but most of them changed course and/or weakened before directly impacting the islands.
Climatologically speaking, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south or southwest. Those approaching from the east tend to either weaken quickly or shift north of the islands. Iselle in 2014 was one notable exception, however.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)

Projected Path

MORE: Hurricane Satellite Imagery