The Dying Erika Dilemma

By: Bryan Norcross , 2:50PM,GMT on August 29,2015

As a named tropical system, Erika is done, at least for now. But, despite rumors to the contrary, its weather is not. As expected, a combination of the mountains of Hispaniola and unfavorable atmospheric factors shredded the system as it moved past Haiti and toward Cuba. A new center swirl formed just north of the Cuban coast, but it’s not strong enough and it doesn’t have enough organized thunderstorm activity associated with it to count as a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression.

BUT… there is windy, nasty weather just north and east of this center. And that nasty weather is going to spread through the Bahamas today and into South Florida late tonight and last at least through the day tomorrow (Sunday). Winds of 25-40 mph are widespread well away from what’s left of Erika. In addition, excessive tropical moisture will accompany the system, on top of the high moisture levels over Florida now.

The bottom line is that heavy rain squalls with gusty winds are expected across the state beginning in South Florida later tonight and spreading north. Flooding rain will be possible in some locations. Things should start to improve some in South Florida Monday, but will likely linger longer in Central and West Florida. In any case, the entire peninsula may be subject to heavy rain at times accompanied by gusty winds for the next several days.

There is some chance that ex-Erika might reorganize into Tropical Storm Erika again as it moves toward Florida. It would not be expected to intensify quickly, however, and, broadly, the weather over the state would not be much different than what we expect with Erika’s remnants. Drivers, especially of high-profile vehicles, and boaters need to be aware of the possibility of wind gusts strong enough to cause problems.

The dilemma here is that even though there is not much difference in the weather expected in Florida from the Remnants of Erika than if the system had held together as a Tropical Depression or 40 mph Tropical Storm, the alerting is very different. Winds at the coast could easily gust to Tropical Storm strength, but because the NHC rules don’t allow them to issue a Tropical Storm Watch – meaning winds of 40 mph or higher are possible – for a degenerated system (even if it might reorganize), they had to take down the watches and warnings. There are plans in place to fix this hole in the system, which can’t come too soon.

So let’s be happy that a hurricane isn’t coming. But beware that the Erika’s remnants may be accompanied by impactful weather. Be smart and don’t be surprised.