Erika to Lash Florida After Delivering Deadly Blow to Caribbean

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

August 28,2015; 10:57PM,EDT

 

 

After Erika brings heavy rain and locally gusty winds from Hispaniola eastern Cuba into Friday night, the system will move toward the Bahamas, the Keys and South Florida this weekend.
Erika remains a tropical storm spinning about 40 miles west of Port au Prince, Haiti, as of 11 p.m. EDT Friday. Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph (75 kph).
Erika will track across Haiti Friday night.

Impacts from Erika Felt in Haiti

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, Erika is a very disjointed tropical system at this time and is likely to weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses Hispaniola and part of Cuba Friday night into Saturday.
"If the center of Erika survives the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and part of the land mass of Cuba, it should slowly reorganize back into a tropical storm this weekend as it drifts over open waters once again," Kottlowski said. "If Erica does not survive the interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, it may never reorganize into a coherent tropical storm again and impact on Florida would be reduced."
There are multiple scenarios on the exact track and intensity of Erika once it clears the northern islands of the Caribbean.
The vast majority of the scenarios focus on which part of Florida or coastal areas the center will travel upon or bypass. There will be some impact on the state this weekend into next week even if the center does not make landfall in the southern part of the Florida Peninsula.

Impact from the central Bahamas to South Florida and the Keys will most likely be less than that of a hurricane and could be similar to a minimal tropical storm.
Should the center of Erika drift into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and avoid much of the Florida Peninsula it could strike the upper west coast of Florida, perhaps as a hurricane during the middle of the week. The last hurricane to hit Florida was Wilma in October 2005.
Assuming Erika survives the encounter with Hispaniola and Cuba, the possible tracks range from the system emerging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to right over Florida to scraping the Florida east coast.
At this time, a track on the Gulf side or into the Gulf of Mexico appears to be much more likely as opposed to a northward path on the Atlantic side.
In any case, people should not just focus on the center of the window or the center of the storm.
Heavy rainfall, gusty thunderstorms and rough seas will be scattered well away from the center, even if Erika weakens to a tropical depression or maintains a tropical storm status.
Preparations Begin in Florida
During Friday morning, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a State of Emergency in advance of Erika.
Erika has caused torrential rain and flooding on some of the northeastern islands of the Caribbean. On the island of Dominica, flooding and mudslides have led to catastrophic conditions.
The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency reports up to 30 people are missing across Dominica as of 2 p.m. Friday EDT.
"This is a good time for residents of the Bahamas and Florida to review hurricane plans," Kottlowski said. "If Erika does indeed target Florida, there will be a big rush to complete preparations this weekend. However, it takes time to do some things such as moving boats from marinas to safety."
Shelves are empty at a Walmart in Coral Springs, Florida, as people prepare for potential Erika impacts. (Twitter Photo/@FallonKlivian)
"Be aware and do things now to mitigate flying debris," Kottlowski said. "Even if Erika does not directly hit, it is better to act on the side of caution now than wait."
Track, Strength Possibilities Next Week
At this point, the amount of rain, wind, coastal flooding and urban flooding from Erika in Florida and the Bahamas will depend on the exact track and strength of the system into next week.

"Waters are warm enough and wind shear is weaker in the stretch from Florida to the Bahamas and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico," Kottlowski said. "So, if it were to survive the gauntlet of the Greater Antilles, it could gather strength and continue to move northward or northwestward."
Satellite imagery of Erika (Image/NOAA) If the system survives as far north as Florida waters, there will be concerns farther north into the Southern states from the Carolinas to perhaps as far west as Louisiana.
There is also the chance the system stalls over the Southern states after negotiating Florida during the middle of the week.
Erika's Impacts Through Saturday
The greatest threat to lives and property in the short term will be from flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic into Saturday morning.

Major Flooding From Tropical Storm Erika Sweeps Roseau, Dominica

In the Dominican Republic and Haiti, rainfall of 4-8 inches (150-200 mm) is likely with greater amounts possible on the mountains. Downpours will become less frequent from east to west across Puerto Rico on Friday night and then Hispaniola on Saturday.
During Friday night and Saturday, rain from a weakened Erika will deliver 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) in parts of southeastern Cuba to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
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Winds will average between 30 and 50 mph (50 to 95 kph), with higher gusts. Seas will be dangerous for bathers and boaters. Winds of this strength can down trees, cause sporadic power outages and damage roofs and poorly built structures.
Erika Impacts on Florida and Vicinity Sunday to Wednesday
All interests from Cuba and the Bahamas to Florida and the southeastern United States in general will need to monitor the track and strength of Erika.

Regardless of the classification of Erika, gusty winds will batter the central Bahamas late Saturday into Sunday and the southeastern part of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys on Sunday. This includes the area from Nassau and Freeport, Bahamas, to Miami, Key Largo and Key West, Florida.
At minimum, surf and seas will increase from the southern Bahamas, the north shore of Cuba, the Florida Keys and the southern and eastern coast of Florida this weekend.
"There will be a Perigean spring tide related to a supermoon this weekend, so where there are onshore winds associated with Erika tides will be significantly higher than normal," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
These effects will be greatest along the Atlantic coast of Florida, including the back bays. Easterly winds associated with Erika will add to the effect well ahead of the storm's arrival, causing water to pile up with coastal flooding and beach erosion possible.
As tropical moisture from Erika becomes involved showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as the weekend progresses.
A track along over or just west of the Florida would deliver a plume of drenching downpours spreading northward across the Peninsula. Even with the more westward track, surf and seas will remain rough in waters along and east of Florida to the Bahamas.
Rainfall from Erika is likely to average 2-4 inches across the central and northern Bahamas through much of the Florida Peninsula. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially if Erika strengthens.

Non-flooding rainfall will be welcomed in southeastern Florida with areas of significant drought and abnormally dry conditions.
People should treat Erika with respect and adhere to warnings and advisories as they are issued. Small craft operators should keep their boats in port, bathers should avoid swimming in the rough surf and motorists should not drive through flooded roadways. To venture into dangerous conditions will not only put yourself at risk but also your rescuers.
The AccuWeather Hurricane Center will continue to provide information on Erika, as well as all other tropical features across all ocean basins.
AccuWeather Meteorologists Kristina Pydynowski, Jordan Root, Brett Rathbun and Alex Sosnowski contributed content to this story.