Erika Meets the Mountains

By: Bryan Norcross , 2:34PM,GMT on August 28,2015

The chances of Florida getting hit by an intensifying hurricane are lower today because the likelihood of Erika running into the giant mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti is now much higher. As I discussed the last couple of days, those mountains would be expected to disrupt Erika’s circulation meaning that the system that emerges on the other side is at best disorganized and perhaps completely disrupted.

It’s not out of the question that Erika may regenerate before it gets to Florida, but its time will be limited. Also, significantly disrupted systems take longer to reorganize and strengthen than when the circulation stays intact, which is unlikely considering the big mountains involved.

This doesn’t mean that significant weather is not likely in and around Florida over the next several days. Erika or its remnants are still coming toward the state with a LOT of rain and gusty wind, and will move slowly up or near the peninsula. We’ll get a better idea of how much rain in what areas and how much opportunity there is for intensification tomorrow morning when we see what is left of the system after the interaction with the high terrain.

There is also an increasing chance that the center of the circulation, if it survives, will move into the Gulf, which would give it a chance to strengthen some as it moves north along the west coast of Florida. The atmospheric conditions do not seem favorable for Erika to get super strong, but there could still be flooding rain and other impacts.

In the short-term, of course, our friends in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic are going to have to deal with extremely heavy rain and winds strong enough to do some damage and knock out power. The Bahamas and Cuba are going to feel it as well, but the strength is an open question.

So for now peninsula Florida remains on alert for an impactful storm, with flooding rain and some gusty winds, which could disrupt travel and cause some power outages. How strong and well organized it will be is an open question. We hope that the Caribbean mountains will knock it out, but we can’t bet on it. We’ll know more tomorrow morning.