Ignacio Still a Major Hurricane in the Pacific

August 30,2015

Highlights:

• Hurricane Ignacio was located roughly 355 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, as of 5 p.m. EDT Sunday evening, Hawaii time.
• At one point Saturday evening into Sunday morning, Ignacio was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Kilo and Jimena.
• The center of Ignacio will pass north of Hawaii Monday into Tuesday.
• The tropical storm watch has been discontinued for the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui County.

Latest Storm Information

Ignacio reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane and has begun to weaken late Sunday morning.
(MAP: Follow Hurricane Ignacio with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)
The weakening trend will continue over the next few days as it moves north of the Hawaiian Islands and is due to an increase in wind shear and slightly cooler water temperatures. The increase in wind shear is thanks to the proximity of the subtropical jet over the Hawaiian Islands. As Ignacio gains latitude, it will likely face increased shear, which tends to push convection away from the center of tropical cyclones.

Another Hawaii Threat?

The tropical storm watch has been discontinued for the Big Island and Maui County.
Over the next few days, Ignacio will track northwest. Computer forecast models have been fairly consistent with a track north of the Hawaiian Islands Monday into Tuesday.
(MORE: State of Emergency Declared in Hawaii)
However, some outer rainbands may produce locally heavy rainfall at least in the eastern Hawaiian Islands Monday into Tuesday, particularly over mauka (mountain) locations.
Dangerous surf will propagate to the east and southeast facing shores of Hawaii, particularly the Big Island, in the coming days, as well.
(FORECAST: Hilo | Maui | Honolulu)
Several tropical systems have threatened Hawaii over the past few weeks, but most of them changed course and/or weakened before directly impacting the islands.
Climatologically speaking, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south or southwest. Those approaching from the east tend to either weaken quickly or shift north of the islands. Iselle in 2014 was one notable exception, however.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)
Nonetheless, interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor Ignacio through early this week.

Projected Path

MORE: Hurricane Satellite Imagery