Hurricane Ignacio Maintains Strength in the Pacific; May Threaten Hawaii Next Week

August 27,2015

Highlights:

• Ignacio was upgraded to a hurricane Wednesday night and is located about 980 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii as of 11 p.m. EDT Thursday.
• The hurricane has passed into the central Pacific basin as it moves in the general direction of Hawaii.
• The storm is quickly strengthening and is forecast to continue to intensify as it moves west-northwest.
• Ignacio is not a threat to land over the next couple of days, but if it remains organized, it come close to Hawaii as early as Monday.
• Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this latest hurricane.

Latest Storm Information

Ignacio continues to move through favorable environment for tropical cyclones, just under 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.
(MAP: Follow Tropical Storm Ignacio with our new Interactive Storm Tracker)
The airmass that Ignacio is moving through has relatively low wind shear, or the change in wind speed with height. When wind shear is too significant, it can effectively rip apart the structure of a tropical cyclone. With limited wind shear in the storm's path, Ignacio should continue to get better organized over the next few days as it moves west-northwest.
So far on Thursday, although Ignacio was able to maintain hurricane intensity, it did not show much in the way of strengthening during the second half of the day.
Hurricane Ignacio is moving over warm water and a moist environment. All of these factors favor additional strengthening over the next couple of days and if Ignacio take take advantage of these conditions, it could become a major hurricane, meaning a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Later this weekend, conditions are expected to become less favorable, with an increase in wind shear, so a gradual weakening trend is likely as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands.
Over the next few days, Ignacio will track to the west-northwest due to a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure to the north of the system. However, early next week there are differences in the computer forecast models as to the track of Ignacio as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

Another Hawaii Threat?

Although the official track takes Ignacio in the direction of Hawaii by early next week, this is still several days out and a lot can change. With that said, the forecast position from the National Hurricane Center for Monday has Ignacio coming close to or passing just north of the Big Island.
The computer model forecasts have displayed a large amount of variability recently. After initially trending northeast of Hawaii early next week, some forecasts Thursday night shifted back to the south, taking Ignacio closer to the Big Island.
Several tropical systems have threatened Hawaii over the past few weeks, but most of them changed course and/or weakened before directly impacting the islands. A weaker Ignacio could be favored to take more of a southerly track, whereas a stronger and more organized hurricane would probably tend to track more to the north.
Climatologically speaking, virtually all hurricanes near the Hawaiian Islands since 1950 have approached from the southeast, south or southwest.
(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)
Nonetheless, interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor Ignacio into early next week.

Projected Path

MORE: Hurricane Satellite Imagery