Storms to Drench Florida Into Weekend; Minor Drought Relief Possible in South

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

August 15,2015; 6:46PM,EDT

 

 

Showers and thunderstorms in Florida will raise the risk of isolated flooding and could bring minor relief from drought in some locations this weekend.
A front that pushed southward during the week will stall and fizzle over the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
According to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, "The combination of that stalled front and very light steering winds will result in locally very drenching storms in Florida this weekend."

Southeast Short-Range Regional Weather Forecast

Some of the storms will bring rainfall rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour, which is more than enough to cause urban flooding in some of the central and northern counties of the state.
Despite the sandy soil, the sub-surface is still rather wet from Tampa and Orlando, northward to Gainesville, Florida, due to the rounds of heavy rain from late July to early August. Some locations in this swath received 6-12 inches of rain.

A smaller number of the downpours will reach the immediate Atlantic coast of Florida.
"This is the type of setup that will deliver more downpours to western parts of Miami and areas just a couple of miles inland of the Atlantic coast, as opposed to the beaches," Kottlowski said. "However, there can still be localized drenching downpours reaching the Atlantic coast on occasion."
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The pattern is likely to continue and expand into more of the Southeastern states next week.
Unlike that of late July, there is no indication of any tropical development along nearby Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic waters. Even so, since stalled fronts in the area are a known spark for tropical development, the area will be watched closely.
Miami has received only about 63 percent of its average rainfall of 25 inches from May 1 to Aug. 14. During the same period, Fort Lauderdale has received only about 27 percent of its average rainfall of nearly 27 inches.

During the first part of August, Miami has fared better with slightly above-average rainfall. However, some locations in southeastern Florida are running a rainfall deficit of 10-20 inches since the middle of the spring.
AccuWeather has released its United States fall forecast with a winter preview, which discusses more rain prospects for Florida in the next several months.