Monday, June 19, 2017

Tropical Storm Bret Spreading Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds Across Windward Islands, Northeastern Venezuela

June 19,2017
Tropical Storm Bret will spread heavy rain and gusty winds across the southern Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela into Tuesday.
(MORE: 5 Changes to Hurricane Season Forecasts)
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
  • Tropical Storm Bret is currently less than 30 miles south of Trinidad, moving swiftly toward the west-northwest.
  • The tropical storm is expected to begin moving away from Trinidad over the next 6 hours and move near or along the northeast coast of Venezuela on Tuesday.
  • Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of the southern Windward Islands and the eastern coast of Venezuela.
  • Heavy rain, gusty winds and increased seas are expected to be the main threats in these areas into Tuesday.
  • This system is no threat to the U.S. mainland.

Current Storm Status
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours.
After passing through the Windward Islands, the forecast calls for this system to weaken into a tropical depression on Wednesday, due to increasing southerly wind shear and land interaction with Venezuela.
(MORE: Hurricane Season OutlookHurricane Central)

Projected Path
Tropical storm conditions, including gusty winds and heavy rain, have likely begun in portions of the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are currently expected over the Windward Islands and the eastern coast of Venezuela into Tuesday.
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and Venezuela (Pedernales to Cumana, including Isla de Margarita). A tropical storm watch is in effect for Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

Watches and Warnings
This portion of the Atlantic Basin is an unusual spot for tropical development this early in the season.
Tropical Storm Bret is an outlier that is only joined by a few tropical systems that have formed in June in the open Atlantic. The system is also somewhat odd because it formed farther south than most tropical cyclones around the globe.

June's Typical Formation Areas

The western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are two of the areas we typically look for the development of tropical storms in June.
This map shows the typical formation areas and tracks for named storms in June.
Any storms that do form typically track north or northeastward, which brings the Gulf Coast and the Southeast coast in play for potential impacts.
On average, there's one named storm in June in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico every one to two years.
Tropical development in the open Atlantic only happens about once per decade.
Last June was an outlier, when Bonnie, Colin and Danielle all spun through the Atlantic Basin as tropical storms.
MORE: Life and Landfall of Hurricane Hermine: Africa to North Atlantic

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