Saturday, June 24, 2017

Southern Mexico to face increased downpours from budding tropical depression

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
June 24,2017, 9:35:57AM,EDT
 A budding tropical depression in the eastern Pacific Basin threatens to increase downpours along Mexico's southern coast into Monday.
AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring an area of low pressure spinning southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
The low has become better organized since Friday and may become a tropical depression by the end of the weekend as it tracks to the northwest just off the coast of southern Mexico.
Tropical June 24
A lack of strong disruptive winds aloft, known as wind shear, and the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean will make the environment conducive for development.
The low may continue to strengthen into a tropical storm, acquiring the name Dora. However, at this point, odds are low that the system will further strengthen into a hurricane.
“Regardless of development or strength, downpours will increase along the coast of southern Mexico as tropical moisture streams onshore,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
How close the low tracks to land will determine the frequency of the downpours and resultant flash flood risk.
AccuWeather hurricane center
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If the low remains a few hundred kilometers (a couple hundred miles) offshore, locally flooding downpours will graze the coast.
A track closer to the coast may lead to more persistent heavy rain, which would put more lives and property at risk for flooding and mudslides.
In this scenario, widespread rain amounts of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) may target the coast and southern slopes of the mountains from Guerrero to Jalisco. Locally damaging winds could also buffet the coastline.
Seas will build in either scenario as the system strengthens, creating hazards for small craft and swimmers.
Vacationers at the resort cities of Acapulco, Zihuatanejo and Manzanillo may have to make indoor plans for a day or two.
The window for development or strengthening will close when the low reaches the cooler waters off the western tip of southern Mexico on Monday night or Tuesday.
The track of the low and steering winds over Mexico are expected to prevent tropical moisture from streaming northward and enhancing downpours elsewhere across the country and into the southwestern United States.
Behind this low, the potential for another tropical system to develop well off the west coast of Central America later next week is being monitored.

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