Friday, June 23, 2017

Southern Mexico to face increased downpours from budding tropical system

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
June 23,2017, 8:38:18PM,EDT
Downpours will increase along Mexico’s southern coast into Monday as the next tropical depression or storm in the eastern Pacific Basin attempts to form.
AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure spinning south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
“The low is expected to organize slowly during the weekend and could become a tropical depression or storm late this weekend or early next week,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
The low may develop as it tracks to the northwest just off the coast of southern Mexico.
Tropical June 23
A lack of strong disruptive winds aloft, known as wind shear, and the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean will make the environment conducive for development.
However, at this point, odds are low that the system will further strengthen into a hurricane.
“Regardless of development or strength, downpours will increase along the coast of southern Mexico as tropical moisture streams onshore,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
How close the low tracks to land will determine the frequency of the downpours and resultant flash flood risk.
AccuWeather hurricane center
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If the low remains a few kilometers (a couple hundred miles) offshore, locally flooding downpours will graze the coast.
A track closer to the coast may lead to more persistent heavy rain, which would put more lives and property at risk for flooding and mudslides.
In this scenario, widespread rain amounts of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) may target the coast and southern slopes of the mountains from western Oaxaca to Colima. Locally damaging winds could also buffet the coastline.
Seas will build in either scenario as the system strengthens, creating hazards for small craft and swimmers.
Vacationers at the resort cities of Acapulco, Zihuatanejo and Manzanillo may have to make indoor plans for a day or two.
The window for development or strengthening will close when the low reaches the cooler waters off the western tip of southern Mexico on Monday night or Tuesday.
Behind this low, Kottlowski is monitoring the potential for another tropical system to develop well off the west coast of Central America later next week.

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