Friday, June 30, 2017

Fourth of July Weekend Weather Forecast: It'll Be Stormy and Humid in the East; West Will Remain Dry

Chris Dolce
Published: June 30,2017

Stormy weather conditions could impact parts of the Midwest, South and Northeast for those starting their Fourth of July celebrations this weekend. The western third of the nation should escape any major precipitation threats.
Upper-level energy rippling through a subtle dip in the jet stream will be the main instigator for scattered showers and storms in the East. As is typical in summer, the timing of those storms will likely prevent an all-day washout from occurring in most locations. Be sure to take shelter if you hear thunder during any outdoor activities.
AAA says that a record 44.2 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home to celebrate this Independence Day holiday weekend, June 30-July 4.
Here's what you can expect:


  • Wet areas: Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Northeast, South, Ohio Valley and southern Plains as upper-level impulses interact with a weak frontal boundary and widespread moisture. A few strong to severe storms are possible in the interior Northeast Saturday afternoon. 
  • Dry areas: Much of the northern Plains and West should escape any precipitation threats. That said, a few showers or storms may billow up over the Rockies, particularly in the afternoon.
  • High temperatures: Afternoon readings will be slightly below average in the central states and near or above average in the East and west of the Rockies. Highs in the 70s and 80s will be common in the Midwest, with 60s toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Minnesota. Most locations along the East Coast and in the South will see 80s and 90s. The air mass in the South and East will be quite moist, so humidity will be noticeable. Interior parts of the West are forecast to see temperatures several degrees above average, while coastal California will be relatively cool.
Interstates potentially impacted:
  • Interstate 90 from Boston to Toledo, Ohio (strong to severe thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 87 from Champlain, New York to New York City (strong to severe storms)
  • Interstate 79 from Erie, Pennsylvania to Charleston, West Virginia (strong to severe thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 20 from Atlanta to Jackson, Mississippi (scattered thunderstorms)
Possible air travel delays: Atlanta, Washington, D.C., New York
(FORECAST: Washington, D.C. | Atlanta | Dallas | Minneapolis | San Francisco)

Saturday's Forecast


  • Wet areas: Sunday will generally feature the same type of weather as Saturday with scattered showers and storms possible in the East, South and portions of the Plains regions. This activity will be most widespread during the afternoon hours as daytime heating fuels thunderstorm development. In the West, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Front Range of the Rockies.
  • Dry areas: Much of the southern Plains and the West are the areas most likely to escape any significant precipitation chances. Many areas in the East will dry out during the evening hours, or at least have breaks in the rain. 
  • High temperatures: East of the Rockies we expect temperatures to remain near average, with slightly warmer-than-average temperatures from the mid-Atlantic into New England. Humidity levels will remain high from the South to the Ohio Valley and into portions of the mid-Atlantic. Highs in the West will range from several degrees above average across the interior to below average along the California coast.
Interstates potentially impacted:
  • Interstate 95 from Miami into North Carolina (showers and thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 80 from Nebraska through Illinois (strong to severe thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 20 from Atlanta to Jackson, Mississippi (scattered thunderstorms)
Possible air travel delays: Miami, Atlanta, Chicago

Sunday's Forecast


  • Wet areas: An upper-level disturbance may cause clusters of showers and thunderstorms to move across the Midwest. Pop-up thunderstorms are possible in parts of the South, and a few showers may develop in parts of New York and northern New England, as well as the Appalachians.
  • Dry areas: High confidence continues that the West will remain dry. Parts of the northern/southern Plains may also be free of rain. The mid-Atlantic will also likely see a mostly dry day.
  • High temperatures: Expect temperatures to be close to seasonal averages in most areas east of the Rockies. However, the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor could be several degrees above average. Parts of the Rockies and Great Basin will have the hottest temperatures compared to average. The California coast will see temperatures slightly below average.
Interstates potentially impacted:
  • Interstate 70 from St. Louis to the Colorado border (scattered thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 10 from Jacksonville, Florida to Gulfport, Mississippi (afternoon showers and storms)
Possible air travel delays: Miami, St. Louis, Chicago

Monday's Forecast

Fourth of July (Next Tuesday)

  • Wet areas: Energy aloft feeding off a humid air mass will continue to spark storms in parts of the Midwest and possibly the interior Northeast. Some afternoon thunderstorms activity is also possible in portions of the Southeast. 
  • Dry areas: Areas from the Plains states westward to the Pacific Ocean will likely remain dry, though a few isolated storms could billow up along the Rockies Front Range.
  • High temperatures: Most cities east of the Rockies will continue to see afternoon readings that are near average. The mid-Atlantic coast may remain several degrees warmer-than-average with highs in the 90s. Interior locations of the western U.S. and the Front Range will be the farthest above average for early July. Salt Lake City could see afternoon readings in the low 100s.
Interstates potentially impacted:
  • Interstate 95 from North Carolina to Miami (scattered thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 90 from Erie, Pennsylvania to Sioux Falls, South Dakota (showers and thunderstorms)
  • Interstate 35 from Minneapolis to Kansas City (scattered thunderstorms)
Possible air travel delays: Miami, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Fourth of July Forecast
MORE: Fourth of July Celebrations

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