Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Fourth of July Weekend Weather Forecast: It'll Be Stormy and Humid in the East; West Will Remain Dry

Chris Dolce
Published: June 28,2017

Stormy weather conditions could impact parts of the Midwest, South and Northeast for those starting their Fourth of July celebrations this weekend. The western third of the nation should escape any major precipitation threats.
Upper-level energy rippling through a subtle dip in the jet stream will be the main instigator for scattered showers and storms in the East. As is typical in summer, the timing of those storms will likely prevent an all-day washout from occurring in most locations. Be sure to take shelter if you hear thunder during any outdoor activities.
AAA says that a record 44.2 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home to celebrate this Independence Day holiday weekend, June 30-July 4.
Here's what you can expect:


  • Wet areas: Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in parts of the Northeast, South, Upper Midwest and central and southern Plains as upper-level impulses interact with a weak frontal boundary and widespread moisture.
  • Dry areas: Much of the northern Plains and West should escape any precipitation threats. That said, a few showers or storms may billow up over the Rockies, particularly in the afternoon.
  • High temperatures: Afternoon readings will be slightly below average in the central states and near or above average in the East and west of the Rockies. Highs in the 70s and 80s will be common in the Midwest, with 60s toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Minnesota. Most locations along the East Coast and in the South will see 80s and 90s. The air mass in the South and East will be quite moist, so humidity will be noticeable. Interior parts of the West are forecast to see temperatures several degrees above average, while coastal California will be relatively cool.
(FORECAST: Washington, D.C. | Atlanta | Dallas | Minneapolis | San Francisco)

Saturday's Forecast


  • Wet areas: Sunday will generally feature the same type of weather as Saturday with scattered showers and storms possible in the East, South and central Plains regions. This activity will be most widespread during the afternoon hours as daytime heating fuels thunderstorm development. In the West, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Front Range of the Rockies and a few showers may also clip northwest Washington. 
  • Dry areas: Much of the southern Plains, Upper Midwest and the West are the areas most likely to escape any significant precipitation chances.
  • High temperatures: East of the Rockies we expect temperatures to remain near average, but humidity levels will be high from the South to the Ohio Valley and into portions of the mid-Atlantic. Highs in the West will range from several degrees above average across the interior to below average along the California coast.

Sunday's Forecast


  • Wet areas: An upper-level disturbance may cause clusters of showers and thunderstorms to move across the Midwest. Pop-up thunderstorms are possible in the Southeast, and a few showers may develop in parts of New York and northern New England and the Appalachians.
  • Dry areas: High confidence continues that the West will remain dry. Parts of the northern/southern Plains may also be free of rain. The mid-Atlantic will also likely see a mostly dry day.
  • High temperatures: Expect temperatures to be close to seasonal averages in most areas east of the Rockies. However, the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor could be several degrees above average. Parts of the Rockies and Great Basin will have the hottest temperatures compared to average. The California coast will see temperatures slightly below average.

Monday's Forecast

Fourth of July (Next Tuesday)

  • Wet areas: Energy aloft feeding off a humid air mass will continue to spark storms in parts of the Midwest and possibly the Northeast. Some afternoon thunderstorms activity is also possible in the Southeast. 
  • Dry areas: Areas from the Plains states westward to the Pacific Ocean will likely remain dry, though a few isolated storms could billow up along the Rockies Front Range.
  • High temperatures: Most cities east of the Rockies will continue to see afternoon readings that are near average. The mid-Atlantic coast may remain several degrees warmer-than-average with highs in the 90s. Interior locations of the western U.S. and the Front Range will be the farthest above average for early July. Salt Lake City could see afternoon readings in the low 100s.

Fourth of July Forecast
MORE: Fourth of July Celebrations

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