Four Things To Know About Hurricane Nicole

Linda Lam
Published: October 12,2016
Hurricane Nicole is forecast to impact Bermuda Thursday and may potentially add to the notable history of Bermuda hurricanes.
Here are four things you need to know about Hurricane Nicole and its possible effects on Bermuda.

1. Nicole is Expected to Be a Major Hurricane When it Impacts Bermuda

Hurricane Nicole is expected to be a major hurricane when it hits Bermuda Thursday. A major hurricane is defined as having sustained winds of at least 111 mph, which translates into a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
Nicole reached Category 4 status late Wednesday evening as maximum sustained winds clocked in at 130 mph, and the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Nicole maintaining major-hurricane strength at its closest pass to Bermuda Thursday.

Projected Path and Intensity

Hurricanes of this intensity passing close to Bermuda are rare. Since 1950, there have been only three major hurricanes that passed within 65 nautical miles of Hamilton, Bermuda.
The last major hurricane to impact Bermuda was Hurricane Gonzalo in October 2014. However, it is important to note that it was weakening as it passed Bermuda and was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph when it made landfall in Bermuda.
(MORE: What Is The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?)
In all of the National Hurricane Center's historical records, a Category 4 hurricane has never hit Bermuda. Nicole will give that stat a run for its money.

Since 1950, there have been only seven Category 2 or stronger hurricanes within 65 nautical miles of Bermuda. In addition, only four hurricanes have tracked within 50 miles of Bermuda in October, dating to 1950.

Two of these hurricanes occurred in 2014, Fay and Gonzalo. The other two October hurricanes were an unnamed hurricane in 1970 and Hurricane Grace in 1991, which played a role in the 1991 Perfect Storm.

2. Worst Conditions Will Be Experienced On Thursday

Conditions in Bermuda will continue to deteriorate the next several hours, but the center of Nicole won't be close to Bermuda until Thursday.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected to arrive overnight, with hurricane-force winds likely arriving by Thursday morning.

Current Winds

Strong winds and heavy rain along with dangerous surf and rip currents will begin to arrive ahead of Nicole, so any preparations should be rushed to completion.
(MORE: Hurricane Nicole's Forecast)
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely through Thursday and a dangerous storm surge could cause water levels to rise by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels.
An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out into early Thursday.

3. Bermuda Has Been a Hurricane Punching Bag

Lately, Bermuda has been no stranger to tropical cyclones. In fact, Bermuda has already experienced impacts from a tropical system this year.
On Sept. 24, Tropical Storm Karl passed just east of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. causing coastal erosion and flooding in several areas. Bermuda International Airport recorded a wind gust of 43 mph as the center of Karl came within 50 miles of the archipelago.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Karl Recap)

Tropical Storm Karl Track

Last year, Hurricane Joaquin passed about 65 miles west-northwest of Bermuda on Oct. 5 as a Category 2 hurricane. Frequent gusts over 50 mph were experienced from Joaquin and Bermuda International Airport measured a gust of 64 mph. Fortunately, only minor damage was reported.
It was just two years ago that Bermuda experienced two hurricanes only six days apart. Hurricane Fay struck Bermuda on Oct. 12, 2014, and then Hurricane Gonzalo moved through on Oct. 18.
This was the first time on record that they had seen two hurricane landfalls within one week. It was exceptional to see both Fay and Gonzalo make landfall in such a short period of time in the tiny area which covers just 21 square miles.

Hurricanes Fay (left) and Gonzalo (right) near Bermuda in mid-October 2014.

Hurricane Fay brought down power lines, damaged buildings and uprooted trees. The extensive damage caused by Fay was unexpected and cleanup had to be expedited as Gonzalo was approaching.
Following on Fay's heels, Gonzalo brought sustained winds of 93 mph to the airport, with gusts up to 113 mph. Damage was widespread and thousands lost power.
(MORE: 2014 Hurricane Season in Review)
Before striking Bermuda, Gonzalo peaked as a Category 4 hurricane, but at the time of landfall, it had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane.

4. Interesting History of Nicole

The history of Nicole has been curious so far. Nicole formed on Oct. 4 and strengthened into a hurricane on Oct. 6 before rapidly weakening to a tropical storm again on Oct. 7 due to strong vertical wind shear.
Nicole then slowly meandered southward before finally beginning to drift northward late on Oct. 9.

Nicole's history through the morning of October 12, 2016.

Nicole then moved into a more favorable environment and strengthened into a hurricane again on Oct. 11 as it slowly moved northward. Late on Oct. 12, Nicole strengthened to a Category 4 (major) hurricane just over 200 miles south of Bermuda.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
In 2004, Subtropical Storm Nicole passed about 60 miles northwest of Bermuda on Oct. 11. Wind gusts reached 60 mph and over 5 inches of rain fell due to this system.
MORE: Hurricane Matthew