Tropical Storm Earl Tracks Westward After a Hurricane Landfall Near Belize City; Major Inland Flash Flood Threat For Southern Mexico

August 5,2016
Tropical Storm Earl made landfall early Thursday morning near Belize City as a Category 1 hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Now, the main concern going forward will transition to excessive rainfall and major flooding.
(MORE: Belize Lashed By Strong Winds, Rain)

Hurricane Earl's landfall statistics early Thursday morning.

Winds gusted to 58 mph for several hours overnight at Phillip Goldston International Airport, west of Belize City, as the eye of Earl passed just to the south of that location around 2 a.m. EDT.

Surge flooding several feet deep was seen in Belize City, as recorded by hurricane storm chaser Josh Morgerman.

Earl was the first hurricane to landfall in Belize, or anywhere in the western Caribbean Sea west of Jamaica, since Ernesto almost exactly four years ago (Aug. 7, 2012).
(MORE: Why Western Caribbean Sea Had Been Hurricane-Free Since 2013)
The center of Earl was located about 50 miles north-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds around 40 mph, as of late Friday morning.

Current Status

Earl Forecast: Heavy Rain Threat

Due to strong high pressure aloft over the southern United States, Earl will continue to be steered west-northwest, weakening to a tropical depression by Friday night.
(FORECAST: Belize City | Cancun | Cozumel)

Projected Path

Earl's center likely won't spend much time over the Bay of Campeche Friday into early Saturday, so any re-intensification over water should not be an issue. it should remain a tropical storm through Friday, however.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico.Earl will eventually weaken to tropical depression or remnant low over interior southern Mexico this weekend, but one threat looms large despite this weakening.
Rainfall totals of 8-12 inches (locally higher) are possible along the path of Earl in parts of Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico. Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are possible through the weekend in these areas.
(MORE: Tropical Storms and Hurricane in Mexico and Central America Have a Tragic History)

Forecast Rainfall Associated with Earl

The track of Earl will remain well south of the U.S.
However, some increase in showers may spread to parts of South Texas this weekend.
Of perhaps more concern is the threat for higher surf and rip currents by the weekend up the Texas coast, possibly as far north as Galveston.
(FORECAST: S. Padre Island | Corpus Christi)

Earl's History

Earl became a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, August 3, when NOAA Hurricane Hunters found winds of 75 mph. Earl was just off the coast of Honduras at the time.
Earl was named late Tuesday morning after a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission found that an area of low pressure had formed.
This system was already impactful prior to being named Earl. Six people were killed in the Dominican Republic Sunday into Monday as this system passed near the island.
(MORE: 6 Killed in Dominican Republic)
As often the case, Earl's parent tropical wave could be traced back thousands of miles to a tropical wave coming off Africa the previous week.

MORE: Hurricane Earl (PHOTOS)