New NOAA Water Model First to Forecast National River and Stream Impacts

Jonathan Belles
Published: August 17,2016

An example product of the National Water Model. This is looking at the streamflow departure from average. The effects of recent heavy rainfall in Texas and Louisiana is clear.
(National Water Center - Click Image to View Detail)

NOAA has developed a brand-new water forecast model that's expected to bridge the gap between rainfall and ocean forecasts and bring flood forecasts straight to your door, and that's a major leap forward for river and stream forecasts.
As we saw in parts of the South – including this month in Louisiana – these forecasts are extremely valuable when the creek that used to be across the street is now a raging river that's about to knock on your doorstep. The National Water Model promises to increase the accuracy and availability of those forecasts.
(MORE: Death Toll Rises Again in Louisiana Floods)

A USGS river gauge located on the northwest side of the Atlanta metro area.

Before the National Water Model was put into use, forecasts were only available a few times a day for 4,000 streamflow locations like the one above. This new model, run on NOAA's new Cray XC40 supercomputer, will now use more than 8,000 streamflow locations to simulate conditions across the entire river network — hourly.
This new model produces forecasts for more than 2.7 million locations along rivers and streams, which is 700 times more locations than previously forecast for.
(MORE: 18 Major Flood Events in These Four States Since March 2015)
The National Water Model will produce forecast guidance ranging from high-resolution hourly forecasts to 30-day ensemble forecasts.
Not only will we get forecasts for more locations, but those forecasts will also give us more water variables such as runoff and soil moisture, which can be used as better predictors for flooding and other environmental hazards.

This hydrograph forecast for the Calcasieu River near Oberlin, Louisiana, is one of a large network of stations that enhance forecasts in the new National Water Model.
(United States Geological Survey)

For many years, NOAA and its partners have produced models — such as the Global Forecast System and Wave Watch III — for weather and ocean conditions around the world. This new water model now covers all of the rivers that many of us live near, which will continue to enhance our safety and security.
The development of this model follows the opening of the National Water Center at the University of Alabama in May 2015.
MORE: Louisiana Flooding