Early has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane off the Honduran coast, and will landfall in Belize early Thursday.
Hurricane warnings are posted for the Bay Islands off the north coast of Honduras and the Belize coast northward to Puerto Costa, Mexico. This includes Belize City and Chetumal, Mexico.
Tropical storm warnings extend northward to Punta Allen, Mexico, but do not include either Cancun or Cozumel.
(MORE: Belize Lashed By Strong Winds, Rain)
Earl's Warnings
Earl Latest Status
The center of Earl was located about 85 miles east of Belize City, Belize, as Wednesday evening, with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph. Earl's forward speed had slowed over the past 24-48 hours, moving west at 14 mph.
Current Status
Some bands of rain are wrapping into parts of Honduras, and clusters of heavy rain well ahead of Earl were already soaking parts of central America, including Belize and Guatemala.
(MORE: 5 Things to Know About Earl)
Earl Track, Intensity Forecast
The center of Earl is likely to move away from the Bay Islands of Honduras Wednesday evening, although heavy rain and gusty conditions are possible through the early part of the overnight.Thanks to strong high pressure aloft over the southern United States, Earl will be steered toward the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early Thursday.
With wind shear not too strong, a moist atmosphere, and the typically warm sea-surface temperatures of the western Caribbean Sea, Earl is expected to continue gaining some strength before landfall most likely as a Category 1 hurricane.
(FORECAST: Belize City | Cancun | Cozumel | Grand Cayman)
Projected Path
(MORE: Why Western Caribbean Sea Has Been Hurricane-Free Since 2013)
Beyond that, it appears Earl's center won't spend much time, if at all, over the Bay of Campeche Friday into early Saturday. If it does, there's a chance for some minimal re-intensification before the center slides back over land this weekend in eastern Mexico.
Otherwise, the remnant will simply slide over land, raining itself out over southern Mexico this weekend.
Impacts
Rainfall totals of 8-12 inches (locally higher) are possible along the path of Earl in parts of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are possible through the weekend in these areas.
Forecast Rainfall Associated with Earl
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Hurricane-force winds are now leaving the Bay Islands of Honduras, and they will spread to the Belize coast and possibly Mexico's southern Yucatan Peninsula in the hurricane warning area overnight tonight into early Thursday.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected on the rest of the northern Honduran coast into early Thursday, as well. Winds of 40 mph and greater should reach the Belize coast in a few hours.
The track of Earl will remain well south of the U.S.
However, some increase in showers may spread to parts of South Texas this weekend.
Of perhaps more concern is the threat for higher surf and rip currents by the weekend up the Texas coast, possibly as far north as Galveston.
(FORECAST: S. Padre Island | Corpus Christi)
Earl's History
Earl became a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, August 3, when NOAA Hurricane Hunters found winds of 75 mph. Earl was just off the coast of Honduras at the time.Earl was named late Tuesday morning after a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission found that an area of low pressure had formed.
This system has already been impactful the last few days prior to being named Earl. Six people were killed in the Dominican Republic Sunday into Monday as this system passed near the island.
(MORE: 6 Killed in Dominican Republic)
As often the case, Earl's parent tropical wave could be traced back thousands of miles to a tropical wave coming off Africa the previous week.
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