What The World Will Look Like If Nothing Is Done To Combat Climate Change

By: By Terrell Johnson

Published: November 22, 2013

When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest assessment report on the state of the world's changing climate at the end of September, it was greeted with intense media scrutiny, especially on the oft-reported global warming "hiatus."
But it's likely that few non-scientists read the report, which was written chiefly for those with a deep knowledge of how Earth's climate and weather systems work.
Enter the video above produced by the Stockholm-based International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, part of its effort to communicate the report's key findings to a lay audience and clarify concepts that lie buried in the IPCC's frequently impenetrable jargon.
Weather.com spoke with Owen Gaffney, the IGBP's director of communications, on why the group created the video and the lessons they hope people will take away from it:

Why make this video now?

Canadian data visualizer Félix Pharand-Deschênes and I had been discussing the idea of doing a visualization the launch of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report for many months.
We knew it was going to be a big deal when it was finally released and wanted to think hard about how to communicate its main messages in a way that made sense to people who do not spend their days reading scientific research papers.
So that means our audience is pretty much everyone except climate specialists, including policymakers not engaged 24-7 in this issue.

What research did you include?

We wanted to focus on two things. The first is the way the IPCC deals with risk and uncertainty. The scientists who write the report use terms like "likely," "unlikely," or "very likely". In everyday language these terms seem a little vague, but the academics are using precise definitions of these terms. Where possible they assess and calculate probabilities related to past and future climate.
So if they say "it is extremely likely humans are the dominant cause of warming in the past 60 years," this has been given a probability range of 95 to 100 percent. If you had a bag with one hundred balls in it, 95 red and 5 black, pulling out a ball at random would, in their terms, be "extremely likely" to be red. In fact, if you had to bet your house on it, you would bet on red not black.
And of course the range is up to 100 percent, so they are saying at the very least it is 95 percent but could be higher. Perhaps there are no black balls in the bag at all. Of course, scientists know no one can say anything with 100 percent certainty.
The report warns that a 4 degree Celsius temperature rise above levels at the start of the Industrial Revolution cannot be ruled out. This marks a vast transformation of our planet. This will cause major problems for developing nations and wealthy nations will have to increasingly devote significant resources to manage such a huge change.
If emissions keep rising at current rates, a four-degree rise by 2100 is as likely as not, defined as between 33 and 66 percent. So, if societies following this path they are taking a very high risk that temperatures won't go that high. You wouldn't bet your house on it, but increasingly that is what is going to happen for many.
The second thing we wanted to communicate was the need to rapidly de-carbonize economies if we want to remain below 2 degrees Celsius, which is what politicians have agreed to do. We are running out of time.

What do you hope viewers learn?

Most people will not read the IPCC reports; there is too much detail and jargon. You need to be an expert or closely involved to really understand it.
We wanted to produce a film that captures the main points of the report as clearly as possible for a really broad audience. It was quite a challenge. We managed to get it down to 366 words and 3 1/2 minutes.
I think the biggest challenge in climate science now is communication. Some recent research shows that people in developing countries have a low awareness of climate change while people in wealthy nations have higher awareness of the issue but a low awareness of the risks.
I hope we have communicated the risks more clearly. I accept, though, that this really is a complex thing to communicate and we can always improve.
Read the full story behind the video at IGBP.

 

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Kaalinnquaq Olsuig (L) and Knud Sakaessen take ice from an iceberg that broke off from the Jakobshavn Glacier on July 21, 2013, in Ilulissat, Greenland. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)