WeatherFanatics: Haiyan a Serious Threat to the Philippines

Monday, November 4, 2013

Haiyan a Serious Threat to the Philippines

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

November 4,2013; 6:00PM,EST

The tropical western Pacific will remains quite active this week, as multiple tropical cyclones will impact areas from the Philippines to Indochina.
Tropical Storm Haiyan took shape over the weekend across the Caroline Islands, well to the southeast of Guam.
Conditions will be favorable for Haiyan to strengthen rapidly over the next few days and Haiyan will likely become a typhoon by Tuesday night, local time.

Satellite image of Haiyan becoming better organized on Monday, courtesy of UW-CIMSS.
The combination of warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear in the path of the storm will allow it to increase in size and strength through the middle of the week.
An area of high pressure building to the north of Haiyan will guide the cyclone on a generally west to west-northwest track through the upcoming weekend.

On this track, Haiyan will approach the Philippines on Friday. The most likely scenario is that Haiyan will be a very powerful typhoon with wind gusts over 125 mph as it approaches the central Philippines.
Rain and increasing wind will reach the central Philippines Friday afternoon and conditions will deteriorate from east to west Friday night into early Saturday as the powerful typhoon crosses the islands.
The expected track of Haiyan will take it directly over the areas hardest hit by a powerful 7.1 magnitude that killed more than 150 people in the middle of October.

Satellite image of the western Pacific from Sunday afternoon, EST.
Haiyan will only weaken slightly as it crosses the Philippines causing damaging winds, flooding rainfall and bringing the threat for deadly mudslides.
Emerging into the South China Sea later Saturday, Haiyan will remain a dangerous cyclone as it continues to move to the west-northwest.
The eventual track of Haiyan will bring the storm toward Vietnam by late Sunday into Monday.
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These areas will receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading up to the approach of Haiyan as rainfall from former Typhoon Krosa and Tropical Depression 30W will soak the region.
Thus, any additional heavy rainfall from Haiyan early next week will quickly lead to flooding and mudslide threats.
AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert contributed to this story

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