Cold Blast for Midwest, East Next Week; Snow Potential Uncertain

By: By Chris Dolce

Published: November 7,2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

Typical of fall, temperatures do their fair share of rising and falling with each cold front that sweeps through.
(MAP: Current Temperatures)

Jet Stream Pattern Next Week

Such is the case next week as the jet stream takes a sharp dip southward from Canada across the Midwest and into the eastern states. This jet stream dip will be accompanied by a chilly, expansive area of high pressure at the surface that can be traced back to the Arctic.
We are fairly certain this pattern change will lead to a widespread area of well below-average temperatures, but the possibility of significant snowfall is far less etched in stone. Let's take a closer look at what we know and don't know about next week's potential wintry forecast.

Confidence High: It Will Turn Colder Next Week

Highs Compared to Average Wednesday

Temperatures up to 20 degrees below average will progress south and east from the Midwest to the East Coast between Monday and Wednesday of next week.
Monday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): Temperatures may not rise out of the 20s in parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota on Monday afternoon. Lows in the teens are likely in North Dakota and northern Minnesota.
Tuesday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): Highs remain in the 20s in parts of the Upper Midwest. Most cities across the Midwest and Northeast will not rise out of the 30s or 40s.
Wednesday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): As illustrated by the map to the right, temperatures will be up to 20 degrees below average across a big area from the Midwest to the East Coast.
A large area in the Upper Midwest may see morning temperatures only in the teens. High temperatures could struggle to reach 40 degrees from Kansas City and St. Louis to Washington, D.C. Parts of the mid-South may also stay in the 40s.
(MORE: Your Local Forecast)

Confidence Low: Snow Potential in the East

Will a Storm Develop?

Over the last day or so, some computer model forecasts depicted the possibility that a vigorous disturbance will dart across the Midwest and help to form a potent area of low pressure aloft and at the surface in the East.
The disturbance itself could squeeze out some light snow over the parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley Monday into early Wednesday.
By late Tuesday through Thursday, there remains very high uncertainty about whether the potential storm system will develop, where it would develop and where it will track. This will determine whether or not we will see a significant snowfall threat in parts of the Appalachians, Middle Atlantic or Northeast.
High uncertainty is to be expected in long-range forecasts six to seven days in advance. In this case, the weather features for this potential setup are still out in the Pacific and Arctic, several thousands of miles away and thousands of miles apart.
"For any model to accurately simulate how those features will evolve is a tremendous challenge right now," said winter weather expert Tom Niziol of The Weather Channel.
Bottom Line: Right now we cannot confidently say whether we will see a significant threat of snowfall somewhere in the East, but we do know it will turn colder. There is as much a chance that we will not see a significant snowfall event in the East as there is that we will.
(INTERACTIVE: When Does First Snow Arrive?)
Stayed tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for updates as confidence increases through this weekend into early next week.

PHOTOS: Winter Storm Atlas Oct. 3-5, 2013

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This iWitness photo of Deadwood, SD was submitted by Jake Fogle.