Thursday, August 11, 2016

Watches Issued as Severe Thunderstorms With Hail, Damaging Winds a Midwest Threat Through Thursday Evening

Brian Donegan
Published: August 11,2016

Yet another day of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and locally flooding rainfall will target parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following severe weather watches:
  • A severe thunderstorm watch valid until 11 p.m. CDT for portions of Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and extreme southeastern South Dakota.
  • A severe thunderstorm watch valid until 1 a.m. CDT for western and central Nebraska and south central South Dakota. This watch area includes Valentine, Nebraska. 
Radar, Watches, Warnings

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats.

Severe Weather Forecast

Thursday Evening
  • Forecast: After a morning thunderstorm cluster dies off, scattered severe thunderstorms should fire up in parts of central and eastern Nebraska, spreading into Iowa, southern Minnesota, possibly far northern Missouri and northern Kansas, then spreading into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois overnight.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Also, slow-moving thunderstorm clusters are likely to trigger local flash flooding.
  • Cities: Omaha | Des Moines | Kansas City | Madison

Thursday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Severe Weather Setup

A southward dip of the jet stream, or trough, is sending pulses of upper-level energy over a warm, humid air mass.
In response to this, severe thunderstorms are expected to flare up each afternoon, and organize into thunderstorm clusters overnight through Thursday night.
(MORE: Summer Thunderstorm Clusters Both Important and Dangerous)

Storm Reports

On Wednesday evening, flash flooding was reported in Wilmar, Minnesota and in the Minneapolis/St Paul metro area after slow moving storms dropped 2-7 inches of rain. Flash flooding was also reported in State College, Pennsylvania.
Some rain-loaded hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter fell in western North Dakota Wednesday. Hail damage was reported near Richardton. Wind gusts up to 75 mph were also estimated along Interstate 94 near Glen Ullin.
Tuesday evening, a supercell thunderstorm dumped 4 inch diameter hail in Carter County, Montana, according to storm chaser Brandon Copic.
(MORE: Giant Hail Reported in Montana)
4" Measured Hail at 655pm 5 NE of Ridgeway, Montana. Was partially melted. Had no data to report it @NWSBillings

Overnight, a squall line tracked across northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota with winds up to 92 mph clocked in Marshall County, South Dakota and an 83 mph gust measured west of Aberdeen, South Dakota.
Meanwhile, Chicago saw its first tornado in almost 10 years Tuesday, a landspout forming on a lake-breeze boundary near Midway Airport.

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(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)

PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding

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