Tropical Storm Javier Heading Towards Baja California; Hurricane Warning Issued For Mexico

August 8,2016
Tropical Storm Javier will move very close to Baja California, including Cabo San Lucas, later Monday into early Tuesday morning.
A hurricane warning is posted for the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane watches, tropical storm watches, and tropical storm warnings are also posted for parts of southern Baja California.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings

Javier will also help to pull a surge of moisture northward into the Southwest U.S. in the coming days. For more details on that story, click the link below.
(MORE: Tropical Moisture Surge Heads For Southwest U.S.)
Here's the latest forecast for Javier's impacts in Mexico.

Current Status and Forecast Timing

Tropical Storm Javier was centered about 75 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, as of Monday morning, and was moving toward the northwest.

Current Storm Status

Javier should pass near the southern Baja California peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, by Monday night into early Tuesday. It's possible that Javier could be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by that time.

Projected Path

Forecast Impacts

Winds will increase in southern Baja California later Monday and remain strong at times into Tuesday as Javier moves near the coast. The winds could cause some tree damage and/or down power lines.
On Sunday, winds gusted to 46 mph in Manzanillo when Javier was near the southwest coast of Mexico.
(FORECAST: Cabo San Lucas | Manzanillo | Puerto Vallarta)
Another threat is the potential for heavy rain and flooding. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches (locally up to 10 inches) are expected over coastal parts of the Mexico's Sinaloa and southern Sonora states into Baja California.

Javier Formed Partially From Remnants of Earl

Javier formed partially from the remnants of Hurricane Earl, which impacted Belize, Honduras and Mexico late last week.
How often does a "ghost" or remnant of a past tropical storm or hurricane help form a new one in a different basin?
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, it's more common than it sounds.
It most recently occurred in October 2014 when eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy made landfall in Mexico. After that, NOAA/HRD says the following occurred:

• Trudy's circulation dissipated in the mountains of southern Mexico.
• The remnant moisture and spin aloft helped spawn a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche.
• That depression weakened to a tropical low before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
• It regenerated into a depression, then Tropical Storm Hanna before landfalling near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Two examples of recent tropical cyclones whose remnants helped spawn a new tropical cyclone in the adjacent ocean basin.
(Data: NOAA/AOML)

It's happened in the opposite direction, as well.
In 2001, Iris made a devastating landfall in southern Belize as a Category 4 hurricane after a less-than-five-day cruise through the Caribbean Sea, spun down to a remnant low, then was reborn as Tropical Storm Manuel in the eastern Pacific Ocean, lasting over a week in that basin.
NOAA-HRD documented 15 total cases of remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes from one basin helping to form new tropical storms or hurricanes in another basin, dating to 1923. They caution that due to lack of satellite data, some other cases prior to the 1970s may have gone undetected.
This has occurred 11 times since the 1970s, or once every 3 to 4 years, on average. One of these cases involved 1974's Hurricane Fifi, responsible for anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 deaths (primarily due to rainfall flooding) in Central America.
(MORE: Tragic History From Tropical Cyclones in Mexico, Central America)
Another bizarre case involved a Category 5 landfall in Belize (Hurricane Hattie in 1961) whose remnant helped form eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simone.
But there's more.
Simone's remnant then ended up back in the Bay of Campeche, merging with another disturbance to help form Tropical Storm Inga.
To recap, that was Atlantic to eastern Pacific back to Atlantic Basin.
(MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names)

Atlantic to East Pacific Mexico Landfall?

You may wonder whether there's any potential analog to what may happen with Earl's remnant. Namely, has an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone spawned from an Atlantic remnant ever made landfall in Mexico?
Several have come close, but officially, it has only happened twice, according to NOAA-HRD:

• September 1974: Hurricane Orlene (seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Fifi)
• September 1971: Hurricane Olivia (made landfall in Baja California as a tropical depression; seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Irene)

Therefore, Earl's remnant helping to spawn another tropical cyclone in another basin would be somewhat unusual. But if that new tropical cyclone then makes landfall, this string of events would be extremely rare.

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes