Tropical Storm Javier Forms Near Mexico; Could Bring Moisture to Southwest U.S.

August 7,2016
Tropical Storm Javier has formed near the Pacific coast of Mexico and is expected to parallel the coast over the next couple of days. Javier formed partially from the remnants of Hurricane Earl, which impacted Belize, Honduras, and Mexico late last week.
(MORE: Hurricane Earl Recap)
Some moisture from Javier could eventually get pulled into the Southwest U.S. in the coming days. In the near-term future, heavy rain, high surf, and tropical storm-force winds will affect parts of Mexico.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted for parts of mainland Mexico's Pacific coast and southern Baja California.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings

Here's the latest forecast on this system

Current Status and Forecast Timing

Tropical Storm Javier was centered 55 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, as of Sunday morning and was moving toward the west-northwest.

Current Storm Status

Though there is plenty of warm water, interaction with land and its poor organization at this time should prevent the Javier from intensifying quickly, the National Hurricane Center said.
Javier should pass near the southern Baja California peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, by late Monday night into early Tuesday.

Projected Path

Forecast Impacts

Tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) are possible in the areas where watches and warnings are posted along the Mexico coast. Winds had gusted to 46 mph in Manzanillo as of late Sunday morning, local time.
(FORECAST: Cabo San Lucas | Manzanillo | Puerto Vallarta)
Perhaps an even bigger threat is the potential for heavy rain and flooding.

Forecast Rainfall

Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches (locally up to 12 inches) are possible in western parts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit along with the southern part of Baja California Sur.
In addition, a southward dip in the jet stream over the western United States may pull moisture from Javier into the Southwest U.S. by midweek. This could lead to locally heavy rain and flooding in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.
(FORECAST: Albuquerque | Phoenix | Tucson)

Atlantic to Eastern Pacific Crossings

How often does a "ghost" or remnant of a past tropical storm or hurricane help form a new one in a different basin?
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, it's more common than it sounds.
It most recently occurred in October 2014 when eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy made landfall in Mexico. After that, NOAA/HRD says the following occurred:

• Trudy's circulation dissipated in the mountains of southern Mexico.
• The remnant moisture and spin aloft helped spawn a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche.
• That depression weakened to a tropical low before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
• It regenerated into a depression, then Tropical Storm Hanna before landfalling near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Two examples of recent tropical cyclones whose remnants helped spawn a new tropical cyclone in the adjacent ocean basin.
(Data: NOAA/AOML)

It's happened in the opposite direction, as well.
In 2001, Iris made a devastating landfall in southern Belize as a Category 4 hurricane after a less-than-five-day cruise through the Caribbean Sea, spun down to a remnant low, then was reborn as Tropical Storm Manuel in the eastern Pacific Ocean, lasting over a week in that basin.
NOAA-HRD documented 15 total cases of remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes from one basin helping to form new tropical storms or hurricanes in another basin, dating to 1923. They caution that due to lack of satellite data, some other cases prior to the 1970s may have gone undetected.
This has occurred 11 times since the 1970s, or once every 3 to 4 years, on average. One of these cases involved 1974's Hurricane Fifi, responsible for anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 deaths (primarily due to rainfall flooding) in Central America.
(MORE: Tragic History From Tropical Cyclones in Mexico, Central America)
Another bizarre case involved a Category 5 landfall in Belize (Hurricane Hattie in 1961) whose remnant helped form eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simone.
But there's more.
Simone's remnant then ended up back in the Bay of Campeche, merging with another disturbance to help form Tropical Storm Inga.
To recap, that was Atlantic to eastern Pacific back to Atlantic Basin.
(MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names)

Atlantic to East Pacific Mexico Landfall?

You may wonder whether there's any potential analog to what may happen with Earl's remnant. Namely, has an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone spawned from an Atlantic remnant ever made landfall in Mexico?
Several have come close, but officially, it has only happened twice, according to NOAA-HRD:

• September 1974: Hurricane Orlene (seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Fifi)
• September 1971: Hurricane Olivia (made landfall in Baja California as a tropical depression; seeded by Atlantic Hurricane Irene)

Therefore, Earl's remnant helping to spawn another tropical cyclone in another basin would be somewhat unusual. But if that new tropical cyclone then makes landfall, this string of events would be extremely rare.

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes