Tropical Deluge: Flooding Rain Threatens Florida, Southeast

Brian Donegan
Published: August 6,2016
If you have a vacation planned for Florida or elsewhere in the Southeast into next week, it may be a good idea to pack ponchos, umbrellas, rain coats and maybe even boots, as locally heavy rain, and even some flash flooding, is expected across the region.
An area of low pressure has developed and is expected to turn the firehose onto northern Florida into early this week. Torrential rainfall is becoming likely in the Suwannee River Valley and heavy rainfall is likely across much of northern Florida.
(MORE: Where Flooding Has Been Most Frequent in the U.S.)

Radar, Watches, and Warnings

Flood watches have been issued for the Florida Nature Coast and Big Bend.

Current Flood Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Forecast

A broad swath of 3 to 5 inch rain amounts is expected across the Southeast into early next week, from the northern and eastern Gulf Coast.
The most widespread heavy rain threat appears to set up from the Florida Nature Coast and Suwannee River Valley to the Florida Panhandle where widespread 5 to even 8-inch-plus rain totals are most probable into next week.
Localized amounts of 8 to 12 inches of rainfall are possible along the Florida Big Bend and Nature Coast through Monday. Some models suggest that a large portion of this may occur on Sunday.
Much heavier amounts in short periods of time will occur where any slow-moving or stationary downpours set up, quickly triggering dangerous local flash flooding.
Some rivers in central and southwest Florida are expected to approach minor flood stage, and other rivers in the Florida Big Bend will likely rise due to extensive rainfall.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Southeast Rainfall Outlook

Where the rain isn't excessive, it will be beneficial since some cities in Florida are coming off their driest July on record. Another piece of good news is that the extra cloud cover will keep temperatures down, as many parts of the South just experienced a record-hot July.
(MORE: July's Extreme Heat Breaks Records Across South)

Why the Sudden Soaking?

What is sometimes daily afternoon thunderstorms in mid-summer in the Southeast (sometimes called the "Southeast Monsoon" by some meteorologists) will be a bit more noteworthy the next several days.
An area of lower pressure and associated moisture has stalled across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and southeast. Meanwhile, abundant Gulf moisture continues to be pumped in from the west across the region, continuously fueling the showers and storms that develop.

An upper-level disturbance with its origins producing flash flooding in parts of Missouri earlier this week is beginning to stall near the northern Gulf Coast, interacting with an old stalled front, providing the lift needed to form clouds and drenching thunderstorms each afternoon into early next week.
This weather pattern is not expected to change much until at least the middle of next week.

Flooding Reports

Here is the rain that has already fallen:

Rainfall accumulation over the last three days.

This area of low pressure has comparatively humble beginnings:
Wednesday, over 7 inches of rain triggered severe flooding in Statesville, North Carolina, flooding the grounds at Statesville High School with up to waist-deep water and requiring 18 water rescues, according to WSOC TV.

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DaShawn Brown @DaShawnWSOC9

The scene now near Brookdale Drive, Statesville; cars submerged @wsoctv

4:58 PM - 3 Aug 2016

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Road flooding was reported in the Pensacola, Florida, metro area after heavy rain Thursday morning.
Significant flooding and debris flows washed out a bridge and forced road closures around Bryson City, North Carolina, Thursday night.
MORE: West Virginia Flooding in June