Severe Weather Returns to the Great Lakes, Northeast Through Sunday

Tom Moore
Published: August 20, 2016
Conditions are coming together to produce strong to severe storms over parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Sunday evening. Although the tornado threat will be low, wind damage will likely be the main impact.
On Sunday, the severe threat lessens but a few strong, or even severe, thunderstorms may erupt in the afternoon from Upstate New York to the mid-Atlantic region.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

In the wake of this severe weather, some much cooler air will be ushered in behind a cold front for the weekend.
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Below is an outline of when and where severe thunderstorms may develop.

Severe Weather Forecast

Saturday Evening

• Forecast: The severe threat becomes a bit more spotty as the weather system weakens, but some severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly from Michigan to northern Illinois and Indiana.
• Impacts: Widely scattered damaging wind gusts possible. An isolated tornado or two are possible in northern Lower Michigan.
• Cities: Indianapolis | Detroit

Saturday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

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Sunday Evening

• Forecast: A few scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are possible from upstate New York down into the Mid-Atlantic during the evening hours. Most storms will be garden variety summer storms that will bring beneficial rains. 
• Sunday Morning: A few strong storms are possible from western New York into parts of West Virginia or Kentucky, but these are not expected to be severe. 
• Impacts: Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. 
• Cities: Philadelphia | Syracuse, New York | Baltimore

Sunday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Setup For Severe Weather

A trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes this weekend as a ridge of high pressure aloft (bulge in the jet stream) weakens to the east.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will develop at the surface, and they will slide slowly eastward through Saturday.
Most of the thunderstorm activity will occur from Michigan to Illinois and Indiana Saturday.

Late Week Jet Stream Forecast

Warm, moist air will be pulled up from the south ahead of the cold front. The front will lift this warm, moist air, and thunderstorms will erupt.
The system will weaken on Saturday but scattered wind damaging thunderstorms are possible.
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