Severe Weather Expected to Return to the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes

Tom Moore
Published: August 17,2016
After a break from severe weather, conditions are coming together to produce severe storms over parts of the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes from late Thursday through Saturday. Although the tornado threat will be low, wind damage and large hail will likely be the main impacts.
A cold front will trigger the severe storms, and some much cooler air will be ushered in behind the front for the upcoming weekend.
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Below is an outline of when and where severe thunderstorms may develop.

Severe Weather Forecast

Thursday Afternoon/Evening

• Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day and into the evening from parts of the Dakotas to Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin as a cold front approaches the region.
• Threats: Damaging winds gusts and large hail are the main threats, though the chance of a tornado cannot be ruled out.
• Cities: Pierre, South Dakota | Minneapolis

Thursday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Friday

• Forecast: Thunderstorms – some severe – will become more numerous and widespread, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
• Impacts: Damaging winds gusts and large hail are the main threats, though the chance of a tornado cannot be ruled out.
• Cities: Sioux Falls, South Dakota | Omaha | Rochester, Minnesota

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Saturday

• Forecast: The severe threat becomes more spotty as the weather system weakens, but some thunderstorms remain possible, mainly from Michigan to Illinois, Indiana and Missouri.
• Impacts: Widely scattered damaging wind gusts possible.
• Cities: Chicago | Indianapolis | St. Louis

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

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Setup For Severe Weather

Late Week Surface Features Across The Central U.S.

A trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will move from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains as a ridge of high pressure aloft (bulge in the jet stream) weakens to the east.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will develop at the surface, and they will slide slowly eastward through Saturday.
Most of this activity will occur from the Plains into the Midwest.

Late Week Jet Stream Forecast

Warm, moist air will be pulled up from the south ahead of the cold front. The front will lift this warm, moist air, and thunderstorms will erupt late Thursday and again on Friday.
The system will weaken on Saturday, but there could be widely scattered severe weather from the Great Lakes to parts of the Midwest.
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