Severe Storms, Much Needed Rain on the Way for the Northeast Into Tuesday

Brian Donegan
Published: August 15,2016
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado, are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the mid-Atlantic into New England, and also westward toward Ohio.
Additionally, any storms have the potential to dump very heavy rainfall over a short amount of time, which could be beneficial to help drought conditions across the region, but will also yield the risk of flash flooding.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats into Tuesday.
Tuesday

• Forecast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the mid-Atlantic into New England, and also westward through parts of Ohio. The most-organized thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop over Pennsylvania, southern New York and northwest New Jersey and then slide into New England.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts, hail and locally heavy downpours. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, though unlikely.
• Cities: Albany, New York | Allentown, Pennsylvania | Hartford, Connecticut

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible across parts of New York and New England through Tuesday night. As always, localized much-higher amounts are possible within any heavier thunderstorms over a short period of time, yielding the risk for flash flooding.

Rainfall Forecast

Severe Weather Setup

Tropical moisture will remain in place through Tuesday, due to a persistent prevailing wind out of the southwest.
Meanwhile, a stalled front is in place over the Northeast, and an area of low pressure will be sliding eastward along that front.

On Tuesday, that area of low pressure will arrive in the Northeast. The interaction of that low with the stalled front and tropical moisture will provide the necessary ingredients for thunderstorm development during the heating of the day.
When it rains, it will rain hard due to the amount of moisture in place over the region. Any thunderstorm will also have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

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PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding