Lesser Antilles put on alert for one of two new tropical Atlantic concerns

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 20,2016; 9:08PM,EDT

 

 

While Tropical Storm Fiona will weaken this weekend, two new tropical concerns are being monitored for development in the Atlantic Ocean.
The tropical disturbance pushing off Africa and a broad tropical low in the central Atlantic Ocean could brew into tropical depressions or storms next week.
The latter may do so as it approaches or reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, crossing the Lesser Antilles in the process around the middle of next week.
The next two tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the names "Gaston" and "Hermine," respectively.

The tropical low is currently disorganized as it battles dry air. However, the low could become better organized as it approaches the Caribbean and the environment becomes more conducive for development.
Even if the low fails to develop prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles, an uptick in showers can still be expected.
"Conditions will deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday [across the Lesser Antilles] as clouds increase first, followed by numerous showers and a couple of thunderstorms," AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
"The most persistent rainfall looks to be for the islands north of Saint Lucia."
The frequency of downpours, gusty winds and rough surf would increase if the low strengthens to a tropical depression or storm.
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"Regardless of its strength, the low will be noticeable to residents and visitors of the Lesser Antilles as it will be dry early next week with seas relatively calm," Leister said.
If the low remains weak, it would likely track more into the central islands of the Lesser Antilles with a continued westward track through the Caribbean Sea.
A stronger system may tend to track more to the northwest than west, targeting more of the Leeward Islands and then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could then cause the system to lose some steam if it attempts to track toward the Bahamas.

All interests in the Caribbean, Bahamas and even the southeastern United States should continue to monitor the low for future development on its progress and potential impacts.
The tropical disturbance set to emerge off the African coast can rival the low to become the next depression or storm in the Atlantic Basin.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Doll gives the disturbance a medium chance of overcoming dry and dusty air and developing.
This disturbance will likely follow in the path of Tropical Storm Fiona, curving into the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean and posing a risk to mainly only shipping hazards.

Rain squalls from the disturbance may first graze the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday night.
Fiona has reached its peak intensity and will continue to weaken this weekend.
"Fiona is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday night and could be a non-tropical system as early as Monday," Doll said.
It is possible that Fiona or its moisture could combine with a front set to push off the east coast of the United States and increase shower activity across Bermuda later in the new week.