Flash Flood Threat Spans From Texas to the Great Lakes

August 15,2016
The heaviest rain has shifted away from flood-ravaged Louisiana, but a threat of flash flooding will still be in play the next few days from Texas to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and even parts of the Northeast.
(NEWS + PHOTOS: Evacuations, Rescues as Deadly, Torrential Rains Flood Louisiana, Mississippi)
At least four locations in Louisiana have seen more than 2 feet of rain dating back to last week, with the highest amount being 31.39 inches near Watson. Record flooding has been observed on at least eleven river gauges in Louisiana.

Below is the flood forecast for early this week followed by a recap of this historic flood event so far.
(MORE: Why the Flooding Happened and 4 Other Things to Know)

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings.

Forecast: Heavy Rain Spreads North, East; Persists in Texas, Louisiana

Tropical moisture and upper-level energy associated with the record flooding that we've seen near the Gulf Coast will get pulled northeast over the next couple of days. That moisture and energy will interact with a stalled front, draped from the Great Lakes southwestward into Texas, fueling additional bouts of heavy rain.
Flash flood watches have been posted in parts of central/southeast Texas, as well as a strip from far northeast Arkansas into Michigan.

Current Flash Flood Alerts

Heavy rainfall began to accumulate Saturday from southern Missouri to Illinois and continued into Sunday.
A bridge over the Big River near Irondale, Missouri was flooded by 4 feet of water early Monday morning. One water rescue was conducted near Bismarck, Missouri. Highway 141 at the intersection of Interstate 44 in the southwest St. Louis suburb of Valley Park was flooded by 2 feet of water early Monday.
Several locations in the mid-Mississippi Valley have picked up over 8 inches of rain since the weekend, including Ellsinore, Missouri (12.10 inches), and Makanda, Illinois (8.05 inches).

Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday

A swath of 3 to 5 inches of additional rain, with locally higher amounts, is most likely in parts of northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan.
Additional rounds of locally heavy rain will also impact parts of Texas and western Louisiana. Bursts of heavy rain could unleash several inches in a short period of time.
Cities: Detroit | Indianapolis | Little Rock | Shreveport | Houston | San Antonio
Even drought-stricken parts of the Northeast could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher totals from parts of upstate New York to New England, primarily Tuesday and Tuesday night.
(MORE: Severe Threat, But Much-Needed Rain in the Northeast)

Historic Flooding Recap

Here are some of the notables about this flood event so far.
Rainfall Totals So Far: 
The highest storm total report as of Monday afternoon was 31.39 inches near Watson, Louisiana, according to NOAA.
This total was higher than from any tropical cyclone or remnant in Louisiana since 1950, though an August 1940 hurricane wrung out 37.50 inches on Miller Island, according to NOAA/WPC forecaster and tropical cyclone rainfall guru, David Roth.
Additional totals through Monday morning from NOAA:

• 27.47 inches near Brownfields, Louisiana
• 24.75 inches near Denham Springs, Louisiana
• 22.84 inches near Gloster, Mississippi
• 21.60 inches at Lafayette, Louisiana
• 19.14 inches in Baton Rouge, Louisiana (Record daily rainfall on Friday and Saturday)
• 14.43 inches in Panama City, Florida

Lafayette, Louisiana, had two consecutive days with 10 inches or more of rainfall Friday and Saturday. Prior to that, dating to 1893, that happened only one other day in Lafayette.

A sampling of the prolific rainfall totals from August 11 through early morning August 15, 2016 from Louisiana to Missouri and Illinois.

River Levels:
At least 11 river gauges have seen record crests in Louisiana, some by a large margin. Here are the records set as of Monday evening.

• Comite River at Comite Joor Road: Record crest set by 3+ feet on Sunday morning
• Comite River near Olive Branch: Record crest set on Saturday
• Amite River at Magnolia: Record crest set by 6+ feet on Saturday
• Amite River at Denham Springs: Record crest set by nearly 5 feet on Sunday morning
• Amite River Basin at Bayou Mancha Near Little Prairie: Record crest set on Sunday morning
• Amite River at Bayou Manchac Point: Record crest set on Sunday
• Amite River at Port Vincent: Record crest set by almost 3 feet on Sunday
• Amite River at French Settlement: Record set on Sunday, with levels still slowly rising Monday evening
• Tangipahoa River at Robert: Record crest set on Saturday
• Tickfaw River at Holden: Record crest set on Saturday
• Tickfaw River at Liverpool: Record crest set on Friday

The Vermillion River at Lafayette, Louisiana, crested at its highest level since an August 1940 hurricane, about 7.5 feet above flood stage and about 6 feet above the March 2016 flood.

MORE: Louisiana, Mississippi Floods - August 12-13, 2016