By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 3,2016; 7:47PM,EDT
As the weather pattern transitions to La Niña this fall, warm weather is predicted across much of the eastern United States. Meanwhile, developing dryness and worsening drought conditions will grip the majority of the western U.S. The Northwest may mark the only exception where cooler air will rule as a result of frequent showers.
JUMP TO: Warm, dry weather to dominate fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic| Southeast to remain on alert for tropical impact into peak of Atlantic hurricane season | Severe weather to follow early fall warmth in the Midwest | Cold to hold off until late fall for central US | Cool, showery weather in store for Northwest | Lack of rain to amplify drought in West
Warm, dry weather to dominate fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic
Those anticipating the turn to cool fall weather will have to wait longer than usual this year as a warm, dry start to the season is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Typical cool shots will hit the region at times in October and November, but prolonged chilly weather will wait until late in the fall for most areas.
"As far as Philadelphia and New York City, I would expect that you're not going to see many arctic shots or cold shots to spoil your plans here in the fall," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
"The only days that really may be cool are those that are wet. If the season follows our predictions, we're not expecting too many of those coming up," he said.
The warm, dry conditions will lead to a promising harvest season for farmers and excellent weather for those attending fall festivals. Leaf peepers may get the short end of the stick, however.
"Fall foliage looks like it may be hurting just a bit because of the current dry conditions going on and then what we expect in September and October...," Pastelok said. "Those leaves, they may not be as vibrant and they may not stay on the trees very long."
Southeast to remain on alert for tropical impact into peak of Atlantic hurricane season
Opposite of areas farther north, the Southeast will experience largely beneficial wet weather early.
Northern and southern edges of the region, in South Florida and the Tennessee Valley, may be the dry pockets this fall, while rain spreads over the rest of the area.
An active weather pattern in October may allow severe storms to form across Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina at times.
"Fronts and any tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, that will all contribute to help out and break this short-term drought that they're in right now," Pastelok said.
Experts predict the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will yield a normal or slightly above-normal number of storms. However, regardless of season totals, one or two more impacts may be in store for the U.S.
Severe weather to follow early fall warmth in the Midwest
The beginning of fall may seem like an extension of the summer season for much of the Midwest, as heat waves grip the region into September.
"Places like Chicago, St. Louis and Des Moines, they still have chances to touch 90 degrees or better for a few days in early September," Pastelok said.
Severe storms will also intrude on the season for some areas, including in St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri.
"Let me stress, though, this is not going to be frequent...," he said. "I think there will be some breaks in between [storms]..."
Cold to hold off until late fall for central US
Warm and dry conditions will extend over the northern Plains into October, before a quick turnaround to fall-like weather.
Cold shots are predicted to arrive by the middle to late November, just in time for Thanksgiving. The cold air, paired with a likely transition to a La Niña weather pattern, could allow snow to fall in late November.
"The more snow we see, the colder the end of November and into early December will be," Pastelok said.
In the southern Plains, a large area of developing dryness will promote hot weather into the fall. The exception may be in eastern Texas, where tropical moisture will help to lower temperatures.
Despite the temperature divide across the region, severe weather is unlikely to pose a major risk into fall.
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Cool, showery weather in store for Northwest
Cool, showery weather will define the fall across the Northwest.
Periods of wet weather, sometimes lasting for a few weeks at a time, will allow cooler air to become entrenched across the region. However, there's hope for those looking to enjoy some early fall days outdoors.
"You're still going to have some warm days. So, I wouldn't cancel out the Northwest as far as outdoor plans go. Just be cautious that there could be some [wet] periods that go on for a couple of weeks."
Snow could build up in the highest elevations of the Northwest as soon as late September or early October this year, slightly faster than normal.
Lack of rain to amplify drought in West
After El Niño failed to bring sufficient rain and snow to California and the West over the winter season, drought conditions will continue to raise the risk for devastating wildfires.
Heading into the peak of the wildfire season, which stretches into September, a lack of moisture will allow dry vegetation to serve as fuel for new and ongoing blazes.
"It's bad now and it's only going to get worse," Pastelok said.
Additionally, Santa Ana winds will fan the flames of existing fires, helping them to spread.
Dryness will also continue in the Southwest, despite some early rainfall from the monsoon.
"We still may have another spurt of moisture here and there into early September in eastern parts of Utah, but other than that, those areas will start to dry out as well by middle fall," Pastelok said.
William Smith ·
Works at South Park
I don't get it! How many long-range forecasts do these "experts",like the ones here at accuweather.com
have to mess up before a clear majority of those that go to these sites
just laugh off or outright ignore these silly long-range forecast for
60-90 days out? They can't get the next 72 hours right most of the time
and we expect them to get these forecasts for the next 6-9 months right?
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
My early predictions for the GTA:
September/October: Slightly warmer and drier than normal.
November: Near to slightly colder than normal with near normal precipitation.
December: Colder than normal with above normal snowfall and below normal rainfall resulting in overall precipitation close to normal.
September/October: Slightly warmer and drier than normal.
November: Near to slightly colder than normal with near normal precipitation.
December: Colder than normal with above normal snowfall and below normal rainfall resulting in overall precipitation close to normal.
Sherry S. Piason Higbee ·
I can't get to more than 10 seconds on the video. Must be due to problems.
Jennifer Lynn Schillig ·
I
hope this isn't true. I like cool fall weather. Then again, didn't the
NWS say this past spring was supposed to be much warmer than normal for
the Northeast--and the Philadelphia area got snow in April and much of
May was cooler. I believe they also said that summer in the NE was
supposed to be much hotter than normal--but except for a few heat waves,
it's been more or less seasonable.
1
Wayne Langhuber ·
I
am not making a winter prediction. But this fall prediction has me
wondering about winter. Winter of 09-10 was El Nino. Summer of 2010
brutally hot in Mid Atlantic. Sept/Oct 2010 very mild. That led to a
cold Dec 2010/Jan 2011. Also the last 3 years that had warm Octobers
(2010,13,14) harsh winters followed. In the years when we had seasonable
October's (11,12,15) the following winters were mostly mild. Notice
Cold weather coming into the Northern Plaines comment in November? That
could mean a cold winter in the northeast? Something to think about.
Antoine Renard ·
its a historica trend along the east coast... i should know im a skier:)
Wayne Langhuber ·
Antoine
Renard the other reason I am saying this is that since that historic
cold snap from Jan-March 2015 we have not had a month more than slightly
before normal. Every month since April 2015 at Harrisburg Intl has been
no cooler than 3/4 degrees below normal Jan-Feb-April-May 2016 all
withing a degree of normal. And from April-Dec 2015 7 of 9 months were
above normal with Oct/July 2015 maybe 0.3+ Normal. So with an expected
warm Aug/Sept we will have gone 18 months withhout a sustained period of
much below normal temps. We are overdue for a flip in the pattern. I am
hoping for a near normal winter but realize its a toss up at this
point. My best guess now is a cold Dec and a seasonable Jan/Feb. That is
often what La Nina's are like in these parts.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Wayne
Langhuber I think a winter similar to 2000-01, 1995-96, or 1983-84 is
likely (Where the opening and closing days of winter are harsher than
the heart of the winter relative to normal).
Aaron Ginther ·
We are WAYY overdue for a cold December anyway, considering our last colder than average December was in 2010.
When will be the forecast for Europe?
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