Several Years' Worth of Rain to Fall During Chapala's Wrath in Yemen

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

November 3,2015; 10:18PM,EST

 

 

Chapala is now a tropical rainstorm and will remain so as the system moves inland across central Yemen, while unloading drenching rain and causing flooding through midweek.
Chapala (04A) made landfall in central Yemen while producing damaging winds and flooding rain. Mudslides also remain a high risk across the region.
A Category 1 storm at landfall, Chapala was the most powerful cyclone to make landfall in Yemen on record though records are more limited in this part of the world than other tropical basins.
Image of Tropical Cyclone Chapala taken on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015. (NOAA/Satellite)
At peak intensity, Tropical Cyclone Chapala (04A) was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, local time, making it one of the strongest cyclones on record in the Arabian Sea.
Compounding the life-threatening impacts of Chapala is that Yemen remains in turmoil due to ongoing conflict for control of the war-torn nation. This situation makes it harder to get advanced notice of life-threatening events to those who need it and limits the ability to disperse supplies needed following a natural disaster, making this ongoing situation even more dangerous.
Chapala will continue to weaken as it moves over land, limiting the threat for damaging winds; however, life-threatening flooding will continue into Wednesday.

The large seas that battered Yemen's northern and central coastline will diminish through Wednesday as the system moves inland.
The main threat area from Chapala will remain in central Yemen through Wednesday as moisture from the storm continues to produce locally heavy rainfall that may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
Total rainfall through Wednesday will average 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) across central Yemen. The hardest hit areas could receive 500 mm (20 inches) of rain. This amount of rainfall in 24 hours or less is equal to what normally falls over several years in Yemen.
Some locations in Yemen that remain at high risk for flooding from Chapala include Balhaf, Al Mukalla, Ash Shihr, Habban, Seiyun and Tarim.
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Oman Weather Center
Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Center
Yemen Weather Center
"Chapala became the second strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. "The pressure of Chapala was 922 mb, close to the lowest pressure of Gonu, 920 mb, in 2007."
Nicholls added that the last cyclone to strike Yemen was Keila in 2011 and was equivalent to only a weak tropical storm.
"A strike on the Arabian coast by a major tropical cyclone is rare due to great amount of dry air that is drawn in from the Arabian Peninsula well ahead of the storm," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
A weak tropical low to the west of India has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone this week as it drifts westward.
A track similar to that of Chapala is possible, though at this time if development does occur a much weaker cyclone is expected. Impacts are possible in southern Oman or Yemen early next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the Indian Basin, for threats to the region in the coming weeks.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty contributed content to this story.