Multi-Day Flood Threat Begins Thanksgiving Day, But Severe Thunderstorm Risk Limited (FORECAST)

November 26,2015

Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will increase over the next few days on the warm side of Winter Storm Cara in parts of the South.
There will be abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and later from the remnant of what is now Sandra over the eastern Pacific, raising the risk of torrential rainfall in parts of the south-central U.S.
(FORECASTS: Winter Storm Cara | Sandra in the Eastern Pacific)
Fortunately, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low through Thanksgiving weekend. A cool and stable environment has overspread much of the country behind Winter Storm Bella. While rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will return ahead of this week's storm, the atmosphere's temperature profile is not expected to be unstable enough to support severe thunderstorm development to any noteworthy extent.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

 


































Friday

• Thunderstorms are expected in the southern Plains, but severe thunderstorms seem unlikely, with the highest risk of a severe thunderstorm in southern Texas.
• The chance for locally heavy rain and flash flooding will stretch from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Midwest.
• Some minor flooding is also possible flood risk in parts of the western Great Lakes due to the combination of rain and melting snow.

Saturday and Sunday

• Scattered thunderstorms are possible in southern Texas on Saturday but severe weather is not anticipated.
• Locally heavy rain may persist in parts of Texas, southern Oklahoma, extending east across Arkansas into southern Missouri through the weekend, which will lead to the risk of flooding persisting across the region.

A rather large swath of north and west Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and southeast Kansas and southern Illinois has the potential for at least 3 inches of rainfall through the weekend. Locally much higher amounts are likely, particularly over northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas, where training bands of thunderstorms produce rain rates of 1-3 inches in the span of a few hours.
This will only add to one of the wettest years on record in parts of this region. Dallas-Ft. Worth may surpass its record wettest year - set in 1991 - from this event.
According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, it's been one of the top five wettest years-to-date, through November 23, in St. Louis (fourth wettest), Ft. Smith, Arkansas (third wettest), Oklahoma City (fourth wettest), Austin, Texas (second wettest at Camp Mabry), Corpus Christi, Texas (second wettest), and Houston (fifth wettest).
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992