Significant Flood Threat on Warm Side of Winter Storm Cara (FORECAST)

November 27,2015

Heavy rain and flooding will continue through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend on the warm side of Winter Storm Cara in parts of the South.
The flooding has already proven deadly in north-central Texas, where several people lost their lives in flooding late Thursday and early Friday.
(MORE: Flooding Turns Deadly in Texas)
There will be abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and later from the remnant of what is now Sandra over the eastern Pacific, raising the risk of torrential rainfall in parts of the south-central U.S.
(FORECASTS: Winter Storm Cara | Sandra in the Eastern Pacific)
Fortunately, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low through Thanksgiving weekend. A cool and stable environment overspread much of the country behind Winter Storm Bella. While rich Gulf of Mexico moisture has returned ahead of this week's storm, the atmosphere's temperature profile is not expected to be unstable enough to support severe thunderstorm development to any noteworthy extent.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Flood Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Forecast

Saturday

• Locally heavy rain is expected persist in parts of Texas, southern Oklahoma, extending east across Arkansas into southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and west Tennessee.
• The rain may be heavy enough to cause localized flooding in the above areas. The most significant risk will be in southeast Oklahoma, far northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas.
• Thunderstorms are not expected.

Sunday

• No thunderstorms are expected, but heavy rain may cause some spotty flooding in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

A large swath of north Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel has the potential for at least 3 additional inches of rainfall through the weekend. Locally much higher amounts are likely, particularly over northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas, where training bands of rain and thunderstorms produce rain rates of 1 to 3 inches in the span of a few hours.

Reports and Records

The rain has pushed both Dallas and Fort Worth to their wettest years on record.
Dallas broke its record Thursday, when 2.16 inches of rain at Love Field pushed the annual total to 57.30 inches, breaking the previous record of 55.31 inches in 1981.
The Fort Worth area followed suit Friday morning. As of 7 p.m. CST Friday, Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport had received 55.87 inches since the start of 2015, surpassing the standing record of 53.54 inches in 1991.
Major flooding was reported along the Trinity River at Dallas as of 9:30 p.m. CST Friday, as the river was running more than 10 feet above flood stage.
Several other sites are already within their top 10 wettest years on record based on precipitation through and including Thanksgiving Day. Those include Austin, Texas (second wettest at Camp Mabry); Oklahoma City (fourth wettest); Waco (fifth wettest); Fort Smith, Arkansas (seventh wettest); Corpus Christi, Texas (seventh wettest); and Houston (10th wettest at Bush Intercontinental Airport).
St. Louis, with its 12th-wettest year on record as of Thursday, may reach the top 10 soon as rain continues to fall.
A portion of State Highway 63 was closed in Oklahoma Friday night due to high water on the roadway.
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992