Multi-Day Flood Threat Begins Thanksgiving Day, But Severe Thunderstorm Risk Limited (FORECAST)

November 25,2015

Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will increase beginning Thanksgiving Day on the warm side of Winter Storm Cara in parts of the South.
There will be abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and later from the remnant of what is now Sandra over the eastern Pacific, raising the risk of torrential rainfall in parts of the south-central U.S.
(FORECASTS: Winter Storm Cara | Sandra in the Eastern Pacific)
Fortunately, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low through Thanksgiving weekend. A cool and stable environment has overspread much of the country behind Winter Storm Bella. While rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will return ahead of this week's storm, the atmosphere's temperature profile is not expected to be unstable enough to support severe thunderstorm development to any noteworthy extent.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday)

• Rain and thunderstorms will develop both ahead of and behind a cold front from Texas to southern Iowa.
• At this time, it does not appear that the atmosphere will become unstable enough to support anything more than a rogue severe thunderstorm or two over West Texas.
• However, heavy rainfall may bring the risk of flash flooding from north Texas (including Dallas-Fort Worth) into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and the western two-thirds of Missouri into Thanksgiving night.

Friday

• Thunderstorms are expected in the southern Plains but severe thunderstorms seem unlikely.
• The chance for locally heavy rain and flash flooding will stretch from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley.
• Some minor flooding is also possible flood risk in parts of the western Great Lakes due to the combination of rain and melting snow.

Saturday and Sunday

• Scattered thunderstorms are possible in southern Texas on Saturday but severe weather is not anticipated.
• Locally heavy rain may persist in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, extending east across Arkansas into the Mid-South region through the weekend, which will lead to the risk of flooding persisting across the region.

A rather large swath of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and southeast Kansas has the potential for at least 3 inches of rainfall through the weekend, with locally much higher amounts where training bands of thunderstorms produce rain rates of 1-3 inches in the span of a few hours.
This will only add to one of the wettest years on record in parts of this region. Dallas-Ft. Worth may surpass its record wettest year - set in 1991 - from this event.
According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, it's been one of the top five wettest years-to-date, through November 23, in St. Louis (fourth wettest), Ft. Smith, Arkansas (third wettest), Oklahoma City (fourth wettest), Austin, Texas (second wettest at Camp Mabry), Corpus Christi, Texas (second wettest), and Houston (fifth wettest).
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Snapped an Awesome Shot? Share Your Photo!

If you crave pictures of severe weather, you've found your home here. Upload your photos or video (taking care to only take photos and videos from a safe location) and share your experience!
(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992