Multi-Day Flood Threat Begins Thanksgiving Day, But Severe Thunderstorm Risk Limited (FORECAST)

November 24,2015

Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will increase beginning Thanksgiving Day as Winter Storm Cara moves eastward across the U.S. There will be abundant moisture feeding into Cara, first from the Gulf of Mexico and later from a tropical cyclone now over the Pacific, raising the risk of torrential rainfall in parts of the south-central U.S.
(MORE: Next Winter Storm Blasts First Arctic Air of the Season into West, Plains)
However, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low through Thanksgiving week. A cool and stable environment has overspread much of the country behind Winter Storm Bella. While rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will return ahead of this week's storm, the atmosphere's temperature profile is not expected to be unstable enough to support severe thunderstorm development to any noteworthy extent.
(MORE: Winter Storm Bella Slams Midwest)

Thunderstorm Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

Wednesday

• No organized severe thunderstorm activity is expected as a relatively stable environment is forecast across the country.
• A few thunderstorms, likely non-severe, may develop across portions of the southern Plains on Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday)

• Rain and thunderstorms will develop both ahead of and behind a cold front over a large part of Oklahoma and Texas.
• At this time, it does not appear that the atmosphere will become unstable enough to support anything more than a rogue severe thunderstorm or two within a larger zone of ordinary showers and thunderstorms.
• However, heavy rainfall may bring the risk of flash flooding from north Texas (including Dallas-Fort Worth) into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northwest Missouri.

Friday

• Thunderstorms are expected in southern and eastern Texas but severe thunderstorms seem unlikely.
• The chance for locally heavy rain and flooding will stretch from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes.
• The flood risk will be enhanced from Iowa to southern Michigan due to the combination of heavy rain and melting snow.

Saturday and Sunday

• Scattered thunderstorms are possible in southern Texas on Saturday but the severe weather threat will be minimal.
• Rainfall will continue in Texas and Oklahoma, extending east across Arkansas and southern Missouri through the weekend, which will lead to the risk of flooding persisting across the region.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992