Flash Flood Threat in Deep South, Gulf Coast, Carolinas Through Tuesday

Jon Erdman
Published: November 8,2015

Additional heavy rain and flash flooding will target parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast through Tuesday, including rain-weary parts of the Carolinas.
Friday night into Saturday, Texas and Louisiana were affected by this latest lashing of heavy rain.
Over the past few weeks, torrential rain has triggered destructive flash flooding in parts of Texas and Louisiana, in particular. Parts of South Carolina were also swamped by a double-whammy of historically heavy rain and coastal flooding in early October.
(MORE: One of South's Wettest Years, So Far)

The setup for soaking rain in the South and Carolinas into Monday and Tuesday.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

Flood Watches and Warnings

Monday's Forecast

Rainfall Forecast Through Tuesday

While likely not nearly as prolific as any of those past events, a number of factors are combining to raise yet another flood threat in this region.




































































First, a cold front that was sagging slowly into the South stalled out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and near the Southeast coast.
A strong subtropical jet stream will ride along that frontal boundary, inducing weak waves of surface low pressure along the front from the northern Gulf Coast to just off the coast of the Carolinas the next few days. This system will then track northeast into midweek.
A deep fetch of moisture from the Bay of Campeche, western Caribbean Sea, and far eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to feed into the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast. A second plume of moisture from a tropical disturbance that will eventually track east of the Bahamas may also have some contribution to the Carolinas rain, but nothing like what we saw in early October.
(MORE: Atlantic Tropical Development Possible)

Forecast Timing, Amounts

There has already been some local flash flooding as of Saturday.
Early Saturday, a stationary band of heavy rain produced rainfall rates over 3 inches per hour near Beaumont, Texas, leading to street flooding in the city of Central Gardens.
At least for Texas, the rain made a relatively quick exit, but areas farther east are next in line for a drenching.
On Sunday afternoon, street flooding was reported in Apalachicola, Florida where 3.77 inches fell in one hour. In Jacksonville Beach, Florida there were reports of flooding in homes Sunday night and over 10 inches of rain was measured in the area through 7 p.m.
(INTERACTIVE: National Radar Map)

Through Sunday Night

• Rain in the Southeast from Georgia, Alabama, Tennesse, South Carolina and much of North Carolina into north and central Florida, including the Florida panhandle
• Heaviest rain, local flash flooding: Florida Gulf Coast mainly north of Tampa, Florida, the Florida panhandle into parts of Georgia and southern/coastal South Carolina.
• Drying out: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi

Monday

• Rain continues in north, central Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, becomes heavier in parts of South Carolina, North Carolina, possibly persisting into early Tuesday.
• The rain will also spread northward into Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia, as well as southern Ohio and southern Indiana.
• Heaviest rain, local flash flooding: north Florida, coastal Georgia, eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina

We expect the heavy rain threat to clear the Carolinas by later Tuesday.
(CITIES: Destin | Jacksonville | Charleston | Columbia)

Greatest Flash Flood Threat

• Parts of the Florida panhandle, south Georgia, South Carolina and eastern North Carolina have the best chance of picking up over 2 inches of rain Sunday-early Tuesday. Some locations may see 3-5 inches of total rainfall.
• The National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches for parts of coastal South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, Georgia, southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle.
• The latest NWS flash flood guidance suggests rain rates of 3-4 inches in 3 hours would trigger flash flooding from the Gulf Coast states to the eastern Carolinas. In central and northern Georgia 2-3 inches of rain in 3 hours would trigger flash flooding.
• Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour area possible in some of these clusters of rain, that may stall out for a period of 1-3 hours, or more, at times.

(INTERACTIVE: Latest NWS Flood Alerts)
As always, respect the power of flash flooding.
Your vehicle can be the biggest danger in a flash flood. Never drive through flood waters of unknown depth and never drive around barricades blocking flooded roads. Turn around, don't drown.

PHOTOS: Tornadoes, Flooding in the South (Late Oct. 2015)