Fall Temperature Reality Check Will Bring End to Widespread Warmth

Chris Dolce
Published: November 4,2015
Fall's reputation for big temperature swings is on full display the next few days with many cities across the Midwest and East seeing a reality check after enjoying widespread warmth. The cold front responsible for the cooldown will drop high temperatures 20 degrees in a span of a few days in some locations, while for others it will erase what may be the final 70s of the season.
(MORE: Who Will See the Most Snow This Winter?)
The warmth preceding the cooldown has already broken records in recent days, and more records are possible through Friday. Below is the forecast showing what areas are remaining warm or cooling down through the weekend.

Wednesday: Record Heat in the Midwest, Great Lakes, South

Highs ranged from 10 to 20 degrees above average across a large swath of the Midwest eastward into parts of New York and the Mid-Atlantic. Most of the South also experienced above average warmth.
Tampa, Florida set an all-time record high for the month of November after reaching 92 degrees Wednesday afternoon. This outpaced the previous record of 90 degrees on Nov. 4, 1961 and Nov. 1, 2006.
(MORE: Unprecedented November Heat in Florida)
While not quite an all-time monthly high, Rochester, New York's high of 78 degrees smashed the daily record by 4 degrees. This was the fourth warmest November day on record for Rochester.
In Michigan, seven of the state's nine official first-order observation sites broke their daily record highs. Flint hit 80 degrees to also set a record high for the entire month of November. Meanwhile, Detroit hit 77; Alpena and Lansing hit 76; Grand Rapids hit 75; Houghton Lake hit 72; and Sault Ste. Marie hit 67. Only Muskegon and Marquette missed the mark Wednesday.
Erie, Pennsylvania also got in on the heat, setting a new daily record high of 78 degrees, toppling the previous record from 1935.

Thursday: Cooler Air Pushes Farther East

Thursday's Forecast

Remaining Warm: High temperatures will still be 10 to 20 degrees above average from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast. The South will see highs 5 to 10 degrees above average.

• Potential daily record highs (current record in parentheses): Cleveland (75 degrees); Detroit (74 degrees); Tampa (88 degrees).
• Final 70s? Thursday could be the final day in the 70s this season in Chicago. The average last 70 typically occurs around Oct. 29, but it has hit 70 as late as Dec. 3. Thursday may also be the final 70-degree day this season for Detroit. On average their last 70 of season has been around Oct. 23, but as late as Nov. 20. 

Cooling Down: The cooler air will advance farther east into the northern and central Plains westward into the Front Range of the Rockies. North Platte, Nebraska, will be in the 50s after enjoying 70s Wednesday. Denver may not get out of the 40s following 70s earlier in the week.

Friday: Near-Record Warmth in Northeast; Temperatures Back to Average in Midwest

Friday's Forecast

Remaining Warm: As the cold front sweeps through the Midwest, the last of the warmth will be focused along the East Coast. Highs 10 to 20 degrees above average will be found from Maine to Florida.

• Rare November Morning Lows in the 60s: Low temperatures Friday morning may be as warm as the low 60s as far north as Detroit and Buffalo. Buffalo has only seen a low in the 60s during November five other times dating to 1873. For Detroit, this would only be the fourth November morning with a 60-degree low since 1874.
• Potential daily record highs (current record in parentheses): Columbia, South Carolina (82 degrees); Baltimore (77 degrees); New York City (74 degrees); Tampa (87 degrees); Washington, D.C. (78 degrees) 

Cooling Down: The cooler air will have engulfed the majority of the Midwest by Friday, dropping temperatures to within a few degrees of average throughout the region. Chicago and Kansas City will see highs in the 50s after starting the week in the 70s. Minneapolis will drop from the 60s to the 40s.

This Weekend

Saturday's Forecast

Saturday into Sunday, the entire Northeast and Southeast regions will see temperatures drop back to near or even slightly below average. Here is what we expect for several East Coast cities:

Sunday's Forecast

New York City: Following upper 60s or low 70s through Friday, highs will be in the low 60s Saturday and middle 50s Sunday.
Washington, D.C.: Upper 70s on Friday will give way to low 60s Saturday and upper 50s Sunday.
Buffalo, New York: Highs in the 60s or low 70s through Friday will be replaced with low 50s or upper 40s this weekend.
Raleigh, North Carolina: Afternoon readings in the 70s late this week will drop into the 50s by Sunday.
Charleston, South Carolina: Highs in the 80s late this week will give way to highs in the 60s on Sunday.

November Heat Records Broken

Besides the numerous all-time November record highs broken this week in Florida, other noteworthy records have been set from the Rockies to the Midwest to the Northeast.
Among the daily record highs for Nov. 3 tied or broken Tuesday were Flint, Michigan (79 degrees); Poughkeepsie, New York (78 degrees); Rhinelander, Wisconsin (70 degrees); and Pueblo, Colorado (80 degrees).

MORE: America's Most Extreme Temperature Ranges