Typhoon Soudelor Nears Taiwan Landfall; 114-MPH Gust In Japan's Ryukyu Islands

August 7,2015
Highlights:

• Typhoon Soudelor is bearing down on Taiwan with winds equivalent to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
• Soudelor was moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph as of late Friday morning (U.S. time) with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. It was centered about 210 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.
• Little change in strength is forecast before the eye of Soudelor slams into the east coast of Taiwan.
• Soudelor is currently passing near Japan's far southwest Ryukyu Islands, where typhoon-force sustained winds have already been confirmed.
• A weakened, but still dangerous Soudelor will make a final landfall in southeast China late Saturday and track inland Sunday.
• Earlier this week, Soudelor underwent rapid intensification Monday and became Super Typhoon Soudelor, the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2015.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Status and Forecast

Current Winds and Satellite

According to Friday's 11 a.m. EDT bulletin from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Typhoon Soudelor was still a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (one-minute average) and higher gusts.
(MORE: What is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?)

Peak Wind Gusts So Far

The eye is passing south of Japan's southwesternmost islands, which lie just east of Taiwan. Typhoon-force gusts (exceeding 74 mph, or 33 meters per second) have been observed at several locations there. A peak gust of 114.1 mph (50.1 m/s) was clocked on the island of Ishigakijima at 10:45 p.m. Japanese time Friday (9:45 a.m. EDT in the U.S.).
Taoyuan International Airport west of the capital of Taipei already measured wind gusts approaching 60 mph Friday evening (Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of U.S. EDT). Hualien City, on Taiwan's east coast, was gusting to 66 mph and a wind gust of 106 mph was clocked early Friday evening at Hateruma in the Ryukyu Islands of Japan.
(MORE: Latest News From Taiwan)
Soudelor's eyewall is just hours away from slamming into Taiwan, steered west-northwest by high-pressure aloft over Japan, which is also responsible for stifling, persistent heat over the Japanese mainland.
As predicted, Soudelor has regained some strength over the past 24 hours. This is partially due to the cyclone's path over ocean water of increased heat content, as well as the impressive upper-level outflow channels to the north and south of Soudelor.
However, dry air seems to have put a stop to that strengthening trend Friday evening local time.
After hammering Taiwan, Soudelor will then make its final landfall in southeast China later Saturday, weakened somewhat by its passage over Taiwan's rugged terrain.

Forecast Path

Here is the latest forecast timing of the closest approach of the center of Soudelor, according to the JTWC (all times local):

• Far southwest Ryukyu Islands, including Ishigakijima and Miyakojima: Now
• Taiwan: Landfall expected roughly 4 a.m. to 6 a.m. Saturday local time, with the center moving west across central Taiwan for a few hours after that
• Southeast China: Saturday night (landfall); Sunday into Monday (remnant inland)

Here's a deeper look at the impacts we expect based on the latest forecast path and intensity.
Taiwan Impacts:
Flooding from wave setup and storm surge will build into Saturday along the east coast of Taiwan. Damaging winds will bring down trees, trigger power outages, and lead to structural damage, particularly of any poorly-built structures.
As with many tropical cyclones that affect this mountainous island with a densely-populated west side, rainfall flooding and landslides will also be a danger.
Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau radar indicates heavy rainbands already lashing the island. One of CWB's weather stations in Datong Township, Yilan County, reported 17.01 inches (432.0 millimeters) of rain as of 10:40 p.m. local time Friday.
Total rainfall of over 20 inches (508 millimeters) is likely over the central and northern mountains of Taiwan, with locally higher amounts. Taipei may see over 6 inches (150 millimeters) of rain.
This may be the strongest typhoon to landfall in Taiwan in three years. The last Category 4 equivalent typhoon to landfall in Taiwan was Tembin in August 2012, according to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. In all, Taiwan has seen 18 Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon landfalls since 1958, says Lowry.
A direct hit of the eyewall on the Taiwanese capital, Taipei is possible. According to NOAA's historical hurricane tracks database, only 10 Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoons since 1958 have tracked within 65 nautical miles of Taipei.

Rainfall Forecast

Japan's Ryukyu Islands Impacts (Okinawa, Miyako and Yaeyama):
The center of Soudelor has passed well south of the main island of Okinawa (including Kadena Air Base).
Soudelor has a rather large tropical storm-force wind field, though, so tropical storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, will still occur on Okinawa even with the center passing well to the south. A gust to 52 mph was reported at Kadena Air Base early Friday afternoon.
Impacts are much more severe south of Okinawa in the Miyako and Yaeyama island groups where strong, damaging winds are occurring. Sustained winds have topped 75 mph and there have been gusts over 100 mph on several islands.
China Impacts:
In southeast China, the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong are most at risk of a typhoon landfall this weekend. These provinces have a combined population of 200 million. Soudelor's circulation is then expected to curl northward, potentially spreading heavy rain to Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei provinces.
Shanghai is at the northern edge of Soudelor's center path. However, gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible.
Soudelor's center will most likely track well northeast of Hong Kong, so the primary impact there may be an outer band of heavy rainfall. Any track farther south over the next few days may bring the center ultimately a bit closer to Hong Kong.
Philippines Impacts:
Soudelor's large wind field may also bring some impacts to the far northern Philippines. Tropical storm-force winds are possible over the small islands of Batanes province, which lies north of the main island of Luzon.
Also, rainbands on the southern edge of Soudelor's circulation have triggered deadly flooding in parts of the Philippines, and this threat may persist into the weekend.

Strongest of 2015, So Far

Soudelor intensified rapidly over the western Pacific Ocean after raking through Saipan, a U.S. commonwealth in the northern Mariana Islands.
Soudelor became the fifth super typhoon of this year Monday after undergoing a replacement of its eyewall, a process which occurs in all intense tropical cyclones. A super typhoon is defined by sustained one-minute wind speeds of at least 150 mph.
At its peak Monday afternoon (mainland U.S. time), Soudelor was estimated by the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to pack maximum one-minute sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts to 220 mph.

Soudelor in incredible detail when it was a super typhoon August 3, 2015 at 12:33 p.m. EDT. This image is from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor aboard NASA’s Suomi NPP satellite. Soudelor's maximum sustained winds topped out at 180 mph.
(NOAA/NASA RAMMB/CIRA )

(MORE: Spectacular Images of Soudelor)
The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Soudelor's central pressure at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday was 900 millibars, making Soudelor the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2015. That central pressure has come up quite a bit, reflecting Soudelor's weakening, to an estimated 945 millibars.
According to the Digital Typhoon database, Super Typhoon Maysak was the year's previous strongest typhoon, bottoming out at an estimated 910 millibars. South Pacific Cyclone Pam in March reached peak estimated sustained winds of about 165 mph (145 knots) in the South Pacific basin.
Low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures allowed Soudelor to ramp up quickly; the cyclone was just a minimal typhoon 48 hours before reaching its peak intensity.

Saipan: Damage "Extensive"

Intensifying from a Category 1 to Category 2 equivalent storm, Soudelor's eye passed directly over the island of Saipan, home to about 48,000 residents. Saipan is part of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. commonwealth.
A state of disaster and significant emergency was declared by Acting Gov. Ralph DLG Torres.

High winds downed power poles, removed roofs off buildings and flooded Saipan's power plant. About 500 people were in emergency shelters, as of Thursday morning, the Red Cross told the Associated Press.
“From looking at the damage, I would guess weeks to months to restore power. It took about three to six months to restore service on Guam after Pongsona,” Dr. Phillip Dauterman told the Pacific Daily News in an email. "This is not the total damage of Pongsona, but it is close.”
Saipan residents rationed gasoline, and Guam sent ten generators to power water pumps, the AP reported. Damage is said to be widespread around the island, and power may not be restored for up to two months.
"I haven't seen a storm like this in 20 years," Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, Northern Mariana Islands' delegate to the United States congress, told the AP. "Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up."
Saipan International Airport recorded a peak wind gust to 91 mph just before 11 p.m. local time Sunday night, as the western eyewall approached, before wind observations dropped off -- not to mention the instrumentation erroneously reported snow -- for about an hour.
Soudelor passed north of Guam but wind gusts over 30 mph and light rain were measured. High surf from Soudelor will continue for the next few days.
Soudelor, a name contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, was a legendary chief on the island of Pohnpei, about 1,650 kilometers (1025 miles) east-southeast of Guam.
Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on Super Typhoon Soudelor.
MORE: Typhoon Soudelor (PHOTOS)