Published: August 22,2015
(MORE: Record Active Tropical Year to Date in the N. Hemisphere)
According to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon Goni was located about 460 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, Japan, and had maximum estimated sustained winds of 90 mph as of Saturday morning, U.S. time. That makes it the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While Goni's intensity may fluctuate through much of the weekend, a weakening trend is likely early next week as it tracks toward southwest Japan.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Atsani is churning hundreds of miles to the northeast. As of Saturday morning, U.S. time, it was centered about 600 miles southeast of Yokohama, Japan with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Atsani had been a Category 5 equivalent super typhoon Wednesday, but is expected to continue slowly losing strength in the days ahead.
(SOUDELOR RECAPS: Impacts | Reports | Images | Rain Visualization)
Below we have the latest forecast details and uncertainties for both Goni and Atsani.
Infrared Satellite: Twin Systems
Typhoon Goni: Land Impacts Occurring
Peak Wind Gust Reports
Rainfall Amounts So Far
As Goni made its closest pass to the Philippine island of Luzon, the forward speed of the system came to nearly a complete stop.
This proved problematic as a steady stream of heavy rain and gusty winds have been lashing the Batanes and Babuyan Islands of the northern Philippines and Taiwan.
The official meteorological agency of the Philippines PAGASA continues a storm signal three for the Batanes Islands. This means winds of 75 to 105 mph are expected. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected and storm surges up to three feet are possible in the coastal areas. Goni is known by the name Ineng in the Philippines.
Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph (72 kph) have already been reported on the island of Calayan as well as at the Basco Radar Site on Batan Island. Gusts to 51 mph were recorded at Aparri on the island of Luzon.
(MORE: Typhoon Goni: Several Dead in Philippines)
Aparri also picked up almost 10 inches of rain in 24 hours ending Friday evening, local time. Farther south, Baguio City picked up 9.65 inches of rain in that same time period from the southern rainbands of Goni.
The Taiwanese island of Lanyu, southeast of the main island of Taiwan, has already reported wind gusts up to 72 mph (32 meters per second) as of 8 a.m. local time Friday (8 p.m. U.S. EDT Thursday). Red alerts for torrential rain have been posted by Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau for the mountains and eastern slopes of eastern Taiwan.
Lanyu also picked up 9.29 inches (236 millimeters) of rain Friday through Saturday evening, including 6.59 inches of rain Saturday alone.
Goni Forecast: Japan Next
Typhoon Goni Wind Probabilities
Forecast Rainfall Through Monday
After stalling for a time, steered by high pressure aloft to the southeast, Goni is now moving north-northeast will soon gain speed and head toward Japan's Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa this weekend.
Even though the current forecast keeps the center of Goni east of Taiwan, the western side of the typhoon is still likely to bring heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts through Sunday.
(FORECASTS: Taipei)
Goni's path will take it through the populated islands of Ishigakijima and Miyakojima Sunday.
The center of Goni could also pass near the main island of Okinawa, including Kadena Air Base, with a closest approach of the center sometime early Monday, local time.
Kadena Air Base elevated their tropical cyclone condition of readiness to TCCOR 3, meaning destructive winds are possible within 48 hours.
In response to a southward dip in the jet stream arriving over eastern China, it's possible Goni may regain a little strength temporarily through early Monday, as upper-level winds may provide a boost to upward motion and thunderstorms within Goni's circulation.
Goni is then expected to accelerate and track toward the southwest Japan -- Kyushu, western Honshu, Shikoku -- or perhaps eastern South Korea Tuesday, perhaps as a low-end typhoon or tropical storm.
Heading into the Sea of Japan, Goni should then make a final landfall as a tropical storm, depression, or remnant low somewhere near the Russia/northeast China/northeast North Korea triple point by mid-week.
Forecast Path: Goni
That's just the first typhoon. What about its twin to the east, Typhoon Atsani?
Twin Typhoons Outlook
Typhoon Atsani: Recurve Out to Sea
Atsani, instead of following in the wake of Goni, is instead much farther east over open waters of the western Pacific Ocean.This is occurring thanks to an upper-atmospheric high pressure zone to its east.
Once Atsani moves far enough north this weekend, the jet stream should turn Atsani well east of mainland Japan.
(FORECAST: Tokyo | Osaka)
There is a much greater risk of Atsani having some impact on the small Izu and Ogasawara island chains lying south of Tokyo and north of the Northern Marianas. Tropical storm-force winds are likely over the Ogasawara islands, which include the inhabited islands of Chichijima and Hahajima.
Japan's easternmost possession, the tiny atoll of Minamitorishima, recorded a sustained east-southeasterly wind of 36 mph early Thursday (Japan time) well to the north of Atsani's center, according to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. A wind gust to 56 mph was measured on Iwo Jima Saturday morning.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Saipan and Guam Impacted By Heavy Rain, Strong Winds
Over the past weekend, Goni affected Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands as a tropical storm.Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) occurred as the center passed through the islands. Off Saipan, a sustained tropical storm-force wind of 43 mph was reported just before 11 p.m. local time (7 a.m. EDT) Saturday. A peak gust of 61 mph was recorded there at 10:23 p.m.
On Guam, Andersen Air Force Base clocked a 49-mph sustained wind at just before 5 a.m. local time Sunday (3 p.m. EDT Saturday), with gusts to 58 mph, as a heavy rain band lashed the northern end of Guam. Guam International Airport near Hagatna, Guam's capital, gusted as high as 46 mph at 5:28 a.m. local time Sunday.
Heavy rain arrived Saturday and continued Sunday, prompting flash flood warnings for Guam and Rota. Guam International Airport reported 13.86 inches of rain Friday through 4 p.m. local time Sunday. (Guam is 14 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.)
This is the second tropical cyclone to affect Saipan in the last two weeks. The island is still struggling to recover from Typhoon Soudelor.
The Pacific News Center reported about 4,000 households in Saipan, or over 25 percent, have requested assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Power outages and a lack of running water and food have plagued the 44-square-mile island about 135 miles northeast of Guam since an intensifying Soudelor hit the island square on Aug. 2.
(WATCH: Saipan Struggles After Soudelor)
Guam's main newspaper, the Pacific Daily News, says some families on Guam are also recovering from typhoon damage – in their case, damage from Typhoon Dolphin back in May. Dolphin's eyewall passed over Guam, delivering gusts as high as 106 mph to the northern end of the island.
Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this report.
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