Highlights:
- Tropical Storm Guillermo was located about 225 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii, as of early Thursday morning (Hawaii time).
- The tropical storm watch that was in effect for Hawaii was discontinued Wednesday. The flash flood watch has also been discontinued.
- Guillermo is weakening, thanks to increasing wind shear and dry air aloft.
- Guillermo's center will pass north of Hawaii through Friday while eventually weakening to a tropical depression.
- High surf will be the primary impact in Hawaii.
Storm Information
Projected Path
Hawaiian Worry?
Guillermo's center of circulation will pass north of the Hawaiian Islands as it continues to weaken due to increasing wind shear and dry air.
As a result, the tropical storm watch that was in effect was discontinued late Wednesday morning.
Guillermo's tropical storm-force wind field is lopsided, extending relatively far to the north of the center, but not so much to the south.
Given the Hawaiian Islands will be well south of Guillermo's track, it appears any tropical storm-force winds may only occur in a few gusts, mainly over mauka -- mountain -- or exposed locations between the eastern Hawaiian islands.
Here is a look at what impacts we expect to see as Guillermo moves north of Hawaii:
- High Surf: The National Weather Service has issued a high surf warning for the east facing shores of Hawaii through Thursday evening. High and potentially deadly surf, strong breaking waves, and rip currents are expected.
- Rain: Enhanced rainfall chances in some mauka locations is possible through Friday.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
Virtually every system approaching Hawaii from the east since 1950 tracking at least as far north as the latitude of the Big Island of Hawaii eventually weakened to a tropical storm or depression by the time it reached the islands.
We discussed the reasoning behind this in a piece written in August 2014.
Last August, Iselle became only the second tropical storm to landfall on the Big Island dating to 1950, after strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane.
Incidentally, hurricanes Julio and Ana also passed near the Hawaiian Islands in 2014. Ana was one of only four hurricanes since 1950 to pass within 150 nautical miles of Honolulu, dumping locally heavy rain and generating high surf.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry says 17 tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm intensity have tracked within 100 nautical miles of Hawaii dating to 1950. Three of those -- Tropical Storm Flossie (2013), Tropical Storm Iselle (2014) and Hurricane Ana (2014) -- have done so since 2013.
Guillermo may not be the season's last to gain Hawaii's attention.
NOAA's 2015 central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
MORE: Amazing Hurricane Images (PHOTOS)
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