Heart of Already Busy California Wildfire Season is Yet to Come

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

August 8,2015; 9:51PM,EDT

 

 

This year has already been an unusually active year for wildfires across California, and the heart of the season is yet to come.
Firefighters in California have joined other crews throughout the United States in dealing with a very busy wildfire season so far this year.
The National Interagency Fire Center reports that the total of wildfire acres burned in the United States through August 7 is the most since 2011. A total of 6,058,694 acres have been charred, which is about triple the total during the same time span in 2014.

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On Aug. 7, there were currently 48 large wildfires burning across the nation with the majority (14) found in California. The fires alone in California have consumed more than 169,000 acres.
Not all of the blazes across California are handled by the CAL FIRE agency, but 4,201 fires that have been through August 1 charred 100,000 acres. That is more than double the five-year average and tops 2014's total of 87,676 acres for the same period.
"Four years of extreme drought has primed California to have the right conditions for a serious fire season," stated AccuWeather Western Expert Meteorologist Ken Clark.
"With the unprecedented drought and the heart of the fire season still to come, the conditions remain very dangerous for more large and destructive fires into October," Clark continued.
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After monsoon moisture threatens to touch off new blazes, the wildfire season threatens to ramp up further into early fall with the onset of Santa Ana winds.
Monsoon moisture will continue to pour into the western United States through September, helping to fuel showers and thunderstorms. As is typical, the moisture will be directed toward the Four Corners region on most days but could get drawn into California on a few occasions.
One such occasion may briefly take place during the middle of this coming week, touching off spotty afternoon thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts of Southern California. At the same time, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring the potential for a storm system to clip northwestern California with dry thunderstorms.
"Dry lightning is always a danger in the fire season to start fires," Clark continued. "Several surges of monsoon moisture has caused some of the fires in northern California."

If the monsoon moisture is not rich enough, thunderstorms that erupt will struggle to produce rainfall, but not lightning. When enough moisture is present, the downpours that result could trigger flash flooding and mudslides. However, lightning could still extend well away from the parent thunderstorm and its heavy rain to ignite a wildfire.
The thunderstorms that will dot Southern California at midweek would bring a mix of localized downpours and lightning strikes, but the thunderstorms should be spotty in nature.
Santa Ana winds ramp up in the fall as the jet stream drops southward. Areas of high pressure will then be able to build into the Great Basin and set the stage for the winds to howl through the mountains and valleys of Southern California.
Any new or existing wildfires will easily get rapidly spread by the Santa Ana winds.
Wildfire season will gradually come to an end as fall transitions to winter and the storm track sets up across California, leading to much-needed rainfall. However, the rain this winter will be a double-edged sword.
"With a strong El Nino expected, there is a better than normal chance the coming winter will be a wet one," added Clark. "This is good news in general, but with all the fires that have already occurred and more to come, we could be setting the stage for a high risk of major flooding and mudslides around burn areas."