Double Tropical Threats Brewing in the West Pacific

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

August 13,2015; 9:22PM,EDT

 

 

In the wake of deadly former Super Typhoon Soudelor, two new tropical threats are brewing in the western Pacific Ocean.
Indications continue to point to a large area of showers and thunderstorms located east-southeast of Guam, serving as the breeding ground for multiple tropical systems before the end of the week.
"Two tropical storms will likely form by the weekend," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards.

The most likely scenario involves a pair of tropical systems developing with the westernmost storm strengthening as it tracks northwest toward the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend. Areas that were battered by Soudelor could again have to deal with a strong tropical system.
This potential cyclone would then travel generally west to northwest across the open ocean between the Mariana Islands and Taiwan, on a similar path to Soudelor early next week. Possibilities beyond that would take the potential cyclone anywhere from Taiwan to eastern China or the Korean Peninsula late next week or early the following week.
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Another concern is that relatively low wind shear and warm ocean waters would allow this system to become a large typhoon or even a super typhoon when at peak intensity.
The second likely tropical system would develop farther east and track northward over the open Pacific Ocean. While initially the storm could impact parts of the Marshall Islands, the northward track would then take the storm over the open ocean with no impacts next week.
Even though no impacts are expected next week, there remains a threat that the cyclone could turn westward next weekend and eventually impact Japan the following week.

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This second tropical cyclone will also likely become a typhoon with the potential to become a super typhoon.
"There have been five super typhoons during the 2015 West Pacific Tropical Season thus far, which already surpassed the normal seasonal average of four," according to Accuweather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.
If both potential tropical systems were to become super typhoons, that would be seven for the season, making it the seventh highest total in any single season since 1959.
The latest Accuweather Tropical Forecast calls for nine super typhoons through the end of the year, which would stand as the third highest total on record behind 1965 and 1997 with 11 super typhoons each year.