By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 12,2015; 9:13PM,EDT
As fall of 2015 unfolds, an already brutal wildfire season will continue across much of California and the Northwest. In contrast, the rain will continue at times in the Southwest even after the monsoon fades in early September.
An expected strong El Niño will lead to beneficial rain for Southern California, but it may be delayed until late fall and winter; meanwhile, flooding and mudslides will threaten the Four Corners region, in addition to some mid-fall snow.
Wet weather is forecast to unfold across the south-central United States after a drier second half of summer, even spreading into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic at times. Farther northeast, a dry autumn is in store for leaf-peepers while the neighboring Midwest will face some chilly conditions.
JUMP TO: Warm Weather to Kick off Fall for Mid-Atlantic, Northeast| One or Two Tropical Systems in Offing for the Southeast | Cooler-Than-Normal Air to Chill Midwest and Great Lakes Area | Mild Air to Stretch Across Northern Plains; Southern Plains to Remain Wet, Cool | Fire Danger to Worsen in California, Northwest | Wild Weather to Grip Southwest, Four Corners
Warm Weather to Kick off Fall for Mid-Atlantic, Northeast
Fall will get off to a warm start in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic before cooler, more seasonable air settles in during late September.
"There will be some periods where temperatures will come up from time to time. I think there's going to be that back and forth still going on through mid-fall," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
The region will dry out ahead of winter and, overall, the weather will be conducive to leaf-peepers and those planning to attend the region's many harvest festivals.
After a bitterly cold winter of 2014-2015, the winter of 2015-2016 will be milder. However, the season will be stormy with near- to above-normal snowfall in the offing for many, which could influence temperatures downward late in the season.
"In the Northeast, we've seen a couple of really nasty winters and lots of big storms. And that was without El Niño. El Niño can bring lots of moisture. The question is always, is the cold there when the moisture arrives?"
The moisture may transpire as flooding rains for the mid-Atlantic early, until mid- to late-season when it can be cold enough for snowfall in cities such as Philadelphia and New York City.
Overall, however, the heaviest snow of the season will most likely fall north and west of these areas.
One or Two Tropical Systems in Offing for the Southeast
Despite below-normal numbers predicted for the Atlantic hurricane season, the Southeast could still get one or two impacts into the fall.
"I'd watch the central eastern Gulf of Mexico coastline and also maybe the Carolinas," Pastelok said. "September is the month. I think after that the threat will weaken fast and go away."
Regardless of potential tropical impacts, a significant amount of moisture will still make its way into the Southeast through late fall and beyond.
When winter rolls around, severe weather will reignite in Florida, while areas from eastern Texas to Virginia will face rounds of rain and the threat for flooding.
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Cooler-Than-Normal Air to Chill Midwest and Great Lakes Area
This fall, the Midwest will be milder overall compared to fall of 2014, but it doesn't mean the crop-growing region will be in the clear of occasional early shots of cold air.
"The Midwest could get an early shot of chill in the second or third week of September that can get cold enough to produce frost," Pastelok said.
Wild temperature swings are possible at times, with quick snaps of cold followed by a week of warmer weather.
As for late fall and into the early winter season, there is an opportunity for a storm track to come to places like Chicago and Indianapolis, according to AccuWeather long-range forecasters.
Mild Air to Stretch Across Northern Plains; Southern Plains to Remain Wet, Cool
Mild air will infiltrate the northern Plains into the fall as warmth that has built up over the summer in the Northwest and western Canada spreads eastward.
"This will start in October then come on strong in November. Temperature departures can range anywhere from 3-6 degrees above normal by November," Pastelok said.
Come winter, snowfall for the region is predicted to be below normal.
In the southern Plains, increased rainfall, below-normal temperatures and limited sunshine will define autumn.
"It may not be extremely cold, but it will be rough to get those sunny days that get those temperatures up during the daylight hours," Pastelok said.
Fire Danger to Worsen in California, Northwest
High heat going into the fall and increasingly dry conditions will allow an already brutal wildfire season to worsen across much of California and the Northwest.
"The problem with the Northwest is they're getting these weak systems that produce spotty storms and they're kicking off more fires than they're helping [to extinguish]," Pastelok said.
Into October, the region could also get some late-season 90-degree days.
However, in California, Santa Ana winds will be at fault through September and October. This will bolster the fire threat, in what has already been a deadly and destructive season.
Some rain is possible for the drought-stricken state from October to November, though it will hardly make up for the existing deficit.
The greatest chance for denting or eliminating the long-term drought will be in winter and early spring with the help of a strong El Niño.
Wild Weather to Grip Southwest, Four Corners
After a few years of drought conditions for the Four Corners region, heavy rain can settle in this fall leading to significant flooding and mudslide events through November.
Drought conditions have fueled wildfires over the past few years, resulting in unrecovered burn scar areas.
"When you put a lot of rain on top of that, you're going to get a lot of mudslides and you're going to get a lot of flooding a lot easier. That's the problem they're going to face this season," Pastelok said.
By November, temperatures will drop well below normal across the Southwest, leading to a very active, wet and snowy season, typical of an El Niño pattern.
John John Griffin ·
Im
sure we will get some rain down here in Texas like last winter but will
we have the two snow events like we had last year Im wondering and I
dont think the southeast is going to get a tropical system until
October. It might be the latest tropical storm system on record for the
Atlantic. Who knows. Of course the Carolinas are going to see tropical
weather Dont they always because they stick out on the coast like a sore
thumb geographically, lol
Patricia Anne Moomaw ·
90-degree days in October in Portland?? Say it won't be so! cry emoticon
Andrew Senecal ·
i
work with customers alot and i want a very brutal and harsh winter
storms and blizzard in the wisconsin area because that works out with me
i only live 15 miles from work
Grant McGuire ·
Just like last year, the Northeast might even see rain in December wink emoticon
Cory Morrison ·
All
I know is that no matter how next winter turns out, at least one person
will complain on here that it is not cold and snowy enough.
Brent Richardson ·
LOL
this accuweather is such a joke, they said same thing in 2014 and 2013
and they got it 100% wrong. They can't even predict 7 days. The pattern
will remain the same, east trough, west warm so we will have below
average this fall/winter.
Grant, your wrong buddy.
Grant, your wrong buddy.
Jim Boyle ·
Hope we do not get too much rain this fall in Goodyear AZ
Aaron Ginther ·
Most
of the time in El Nino years the storminess is shunted to the
Mid-Atlantic & Southeast. 9 times out of 10 northern New England is
drier in strong El Nino years, with the storminess being focused to
around NYC and points south. I'd say the Mid-Atlantic & Southeast
should be on the look out for heavy rains, and snow if everything comes
together.. If we can get cold air to collide with an already active
storm track, these areas (especially from the Tennessee Valley, the
Carolinas to Philadelphia) should watch out for some hits as well,
similar to 2009-10.
It is still very early, and there is a lot of uncertainty in what the effects from El Nino may be. Every El Nino is different.
It is still very early, and there is a lot of uncertainty in what the effects from El Nino may be. Every El Nino is different.
Cory Morrison ·
I also don't necessarily think this will be a big snow season for Southern Ontario either.
Aaron Ginther ·
They
seem to believe an active storm track is going to set up over the Great
Lakes this winter. I don't particularly think this is very common for
El Nino years. In 2009-10 southern Ontario wasn't very snowy at all but
in my area we had one of our snowiest ever. That winter it snowed in
places that hadn't seen snow in years and years like the Gulf Coast and
even parts of central Florida.
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther
that is a lot more common in La Nina winters, for storm tracks to hang
around near Southern Ontario resulting in a lot of snow/freezing
rain/sleet/rain events.
February/March 2011, December 2008, February 2008, December 2007, February 2001, and January 1999 were like this, all which occurred during La Nina winters.
February/March 2011, December 2008, February 2008, December 2007, February 2001, and January 1999 were like this, all which occurred during La Nina winters.
Rocco Salvemini ·
Looks like NYC can keep the summer clothes out till nov again
Cory Morrison ·
Probably late September-October.
Bill Gavin ·
Look
at the US Drought monitor from March 1, 2008 -- very different picture
than today (and five years will be very different than now). It's
called the weather.
Bill Gavin ·
I
predict that it will get cooler this fall, then really cold in the
winter, then warmer in the spring, then hot again next summer.
The Buff Spirit
You are hired! Can you start immediately, this is what we need. -Love, Accuweather.
Cory Morrison ·
My
main expectation for this fall is for November 2015 to be milder than
the last two November's in Southern Ontario. I also do not want a 3rd
consecutive brutally cold winter.
Brian Moore ·
I
think and hope that what we saw the last two winter's will not repeat
itself anytime soon, hopefully not in my lifetime ! I see for our area
the fall starting off cooler and wetter but end milder and drier making
for an average fall. Winter right now I am thinking slightly milder and
drier than normal but it is still pretty early to tell.
Cory Morrison ·
Brian
Moore I think the El Nino winters of 1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-87, and
2009-10 are so far decent analogs for 2015-16. None of these winters
were very mild but also not brutally cold either.
Last year around this time, I believe I predicted that 1958-59, 1969-70, 1977-78, and 2002-03 would be good analogs for 2014-15. Unfortunately, I was pretty much right on.
Last year around this time, I believe I predicted that 1958-59, 1969-70, 1977-78, and 2002-03 would be good analogs for 2014-15. Unfortunately, I was pretty much right on.
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
The poll asked if I'm looking forward to Fall. Naturally, I voted: "Yes, I look forward to Fall weather!"
In fact, I've been looking forward to Fall (my favorite season, by the way) since last December. Don't forget that that's when I started counting down to Fall. And, when Winter comes this December, I'll more than likely count down to Fall of 2016.
http://mycountdown.org/Other/Autumn/
In fact, I've been looking forward to Fall (my favorite season, by the way) since last December. Don't forget that that's when I started counting down to Fall. And, when Winter comes this December, I'll more than likely count down to Fall of 2016.
http://mycountdown.org/Other/Autumn/
Keith Block
Weather
cannot be predicted outside of 5-6 days. There is a reason why their
long term forecasts are wrong as often as they are correct.
Joshua Wade ·
I
wouldn't be surprised if the winter of 2015-16 was actually as extreme
and frigid as the last two. Perhaps I won't be surprised if February
2016 turns out to be colder than February 2015.
Joshua Wade ·
Seriously? I thought the winter of 2015-2016 will be equally as brutal and frigid as 2013-2014 and 2014-2015!
Jolly Rodger
One
term....El Nino.....the El Nino that they are predicting should make
the upcoming misery less miserable....Winter sucks any way you slice
it....with an El Nino in the picture, it will suck less.....Hopefully
that will be the case, BUT again, in the words of Yogi Berra, I will
believe it when I believe it.....
Wayne Langhuber ·
It
looks like areas in Southern Pa. could see a repeat of Fall-Winter
2006-07. Most models agree on the Fall starting mild and the winter
ending cold. I think that we see some severe events in November/Early
December as well with the storm track likely well west of here. But at
what point do we transition to cold? My feeling is if the PNA stays
posivie and the El Nino peaks in late fall the transition will occur in
Late Dec/Jan. Late Jan/Feb if it peaks in Early Winter. If it does not
peak until late winter then a repeat of 1997-98 is possible but that is
the least likely I think. Very possible a couple of big snowstorms in
February. Other than that its all a guessing game.
Peter Kane ·
The
Fall Forecast is more of a one that is likely one to equate because the
Winter Forecast is far out. There will be some finalizations of the
Winter Forecast in months to come. However, we do have an ideal of what
Winter is like when you have the Fall Forecast out. Winter is often a
big player in forecasts.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Peter
Kane I have seen other local forecasters and their opinion is the Fall
will start mild (September likely above average temps). After that there
is quite a bit of disagreement. I am not sure we have ever had a
Positive PNA and a Strong El Nino. (And that seems to be a possibility).
2002-03 was Mild in Sept and very cold from Oct-Feb. 1991-92 was mild
the entire Fall and Winter then March turned cold. 2006-07 was Mild
Oct-Jan then very cold Feb. 2009-10 was changable (Cold Oct, Mild Nov,
Cold Snowy Dec, Seasonable Jan and Snowy Feb). Where I live Southeast
Pa. is often an area that sees variable El Nino's. I know with that Cold
Pool of water off the NW Coast of Canada the potential for Arctic
invasions will be there. And that means a collision with the Tropical
moisture from the El Nino. Volatility is likely. (Severe weather early,
heavy rain/snowstorms later).
Cory Morrison ·
Peter Kane I think a fall similar to 2009 or 2006 is likely at least in my area.
Aaron Ginther ·
One
thing that is noticeable is most of our biggest snowstorms here in the
Virginia piedmont have happened during moderate and even strong El Nino
years. Typically a strong El Nino leans milder and wetter but doesn't
always equate to below normal snowfall. Our average annual snowfall is
18.3" so all it really takes is 1 or 2 big snowstorms to achieve the
averages. But in 1997-98 we only had 0.4" for the entire winter season,
and the winter went down as our least snowiest winter on record (records
date back to the late 1800's). But in February 1983 we had one of our
largest snowfalls in history that dropped 19" of snow. Also the strong
El Nino of 1957-58 had above average snowfall, I believe.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Aaron
Ginther I was living in Philly in 97-98 and we saw an inch of snow.
There were alot of storms but they were warm storms (All rain maybe an
occasional mix). winter 82-83 was 5+ normal temp wise but we got 28
inches of snow (21 inches in one storm). As far as the storm track it
might start out through the Ohio Valley In Nov. Depending on the
temperature behind the low it could mean heavy snow. But areas east of
there could have severe weather. Nov 2003 saw a very bad tornado
outbreak in Mid November around Ohio which soon transitioned to snow
cover as people picked up the pieces. That is a concern of mine going
into this winter. There will be cold from That Positive PNA but there
will be plenty of tropical moisture from El Nino. If the warmth hangs on
well into fall we could see a couple of severe weatehr episodes. Even
into winter there could be severe weather from SE VA to FL.
You idiots just posted last month that the Tennessee valley would see higher snow fall.
Weather forecasts are never written in stone.
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