By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
January 27,2015; 9:07PM,EST
Suomi
NPP captures blizzard near peak intensity as it moves over New York and
Boston regions at 1:45 am EST on Jan. 27, 2015. (NOAA/NASA)As it became obvious on Saturday that a major blizzard was going to hit the Northeast, the track and size of the storm became critical as to which areas would be hit the hardest.
The Blizzard of 2015 has hit with all its fury in central and eastern Long Island to southern and eastern New England. The storm that started off as a moisture-starved Alberta Clipper has caused major disruptions and it is not over.
RELATED:
LIVE: Blizzard Rages on From Boston to Portland, Maine
Track the Blizzard on AccuWeather's Interactive Weather Radar
AccuWeather Winter Weather Center
As of 7:00 a.m. EST Tuesday, approximately 8 inches had fallen on New York City's Central Park with 11 inches at LaGuardia Airport.
Much less snow fell in the Philadelphia area. As of 7:00 a.m. EST Tuesday, 1-2 inches had fallen on the city.
Additional snow will fall on central and eastern New England through Tuesday night.So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Snow-covered roadways and vehicles in the Boston area Tuesday morning, Jan. 27, 2015. (Photo/takumamusic)Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
"Dry, powdery snow and moderate wind has spared the New York City area to central New England massive power outages," Abrams said. "However, the snow has been wet and clinging, combined with high winds, in southeastern Massachusetts and has caused numerous power outages."
Additional snow will fall in the corridor from Philadelphia to New York City into Tuesday afternoon with locally heavy burst or two of snow in some cases.
Blizzard conditions will continue into Tuesday evening in part of New England.
- Patricia Morris · Bennington CollegePeople who are upset that the forecasts aren't spot on should remember that at least we knew that a storm was coming, and could prepare for it. That knowledge is a relatively recent thing. The predictions for the storm track can't be precisely accurate. Too many things can influence the track as the storm moves in. Hurricane Sandy is a case in point. Sometimes things can be worse than predicted when the track moves a little to the north or south, east or west. Some people on Staten Island thought that Hurricane Sandy was "hyped", didn't evacuate, and lost their lives. I hope that the fact that this storm wasn't as dangerous in the NYC area as it was thought that it might be doesn't affect everyone's judgement concerning the next storm.
Nick Borelli · South Brunswick High Schoolthat is what is wrong with all these idiot weathermen. this was supposed to be "the storm of the century". do you think anyone is going to listen to their next "storm of the century" report. aug 2011 the blew a hurricane out of proportion, so the next year with hurricane sandy no one listened and look what happened.
Sean HasselbackIn Australia we've had a few pretty bad floods over the last decade, and along the way there has been an the introduction of an 'early warning' alert service, where people can sign up for email/sms warnings. I get these all the time for storms with predicted possible flooding / winds / hail and 90% of the time all I see is a bit of heavy rain. I completely understand the difficulty in weather forecasting, but the other side of the coin is the 'boy-who-cried-wolf' issue, where people will start ignoring these warnings (as Patricia mentioned had happened during Sandy). I see some similarities between this issue and over-prescription we see happening in the medical system in response to legal actions being taken against doctors.
Robert Parker · Top Commenter · Juniata CollegeNick Borelli Nobody that I saw had a good snowfall map for this storm. But honestly think about it like this. Would you rather prepare for an historic storm, which is what all the models had been agreeing on and the European model which had showed it for 4 straight runs, and wind up with 6 inches. Or would you rather prepare for 6 inches of snow and get 30 inches, have no power/no access to food and be in danger. It's much better to over-prepare then under-prepare. It always is. There are places that have reported over 30 inches and its still going, and this might be the single largest snowstorm in Boston's history.
Much better to prepare and get lucky, then under-prepare and get screwed and have your life at risk.
Eric Martin · Top Commenter · Works at Writer and Author of The Trading SocietyLove it when the 'armchair meteorologists' show up and start the 'Monday morning forecasting.'
But I can see how this happened where the storm was played up in the media as it appears the most dire model prediction for this event came from the European model which is usually much more reliable in the past when it came to predicting winter storms that the US GFS model. The Euro was spitting out the fantastic numbers for snowfall and putting NYC and the Tri-State area in an area of 20-30" inches but as we got closer to the event the other models-the GFS, the UKMET, NAM and most notably the RPM-diverged from the Euro model and lessened the impact in those areas.
But I can fully understand why the warnings were issued in light of the past track-record of the Euro model. Do you discount a model that has been fairly accurate with pa... See More
Steve Hinchey · Top Commenter · Burlington, VermontLove your forecasts Alex, and you show a great deal of integrity after the fact. Something sadly missing in the business. This was a difficult storm to get that close, and you weren't far off. Some areas may complain they were missed, but many more are grateful for the warning.
Gary Hudecek · Top Commenter · Team Captain at Lotto Magic Lottery Pool TeamWeather channel and the rest sensationalize everything just for ratings. It's not about news and information any more it's about entrainment.
Marc Weiss · Top Commenter · Staten Island, New YorkOf course they sensationalized it. You have to get people to stay glued to the tube watching each little twist and turn. Same thing happens when the news has a special report. With thousands of channels to choose from, showing the same things, they all have to out hype each other. It sucks, because you have frightened people running to the supermarket buying enough food to carry them through July. People tend to push the panic button when they are hyped up.
Patricia Stefaniak Tonkin · Top Commenter · Professor at College of Lake County
John Belli · Top Commenterit was clear from looking at the radar yesterday afternoon that the dire predictions for the Philly area were not going to occur and yet the forecast wasn't changed. Why? Is it a case of sticking with the models instead of what you're seeing?
Jim McCabe · Top CommenterYeah, you can say the same thing for most of NJ, NYC, upstate NY and Western MA. I wonder about the financial incentives of sticking with the big forecasts from these organizations that both predict weather and then profit from the coverage of it. Once the machine is rolling who has the "balls" to make the call to turn it off at a big cost to the organization. Even CNN had Don Lemon out there in the Blizzardmobile in NYC last night. LOL. They fell all over themselves to "go big" and move the storm west for the worst possible case but then stubbornly held onto that when the storm was clearly heading east and even your average layman could see it. I reduced my forecast for Richmond, MA where I am last night to 6 inches max when accuweather was still at 1-2 feet, weather channel at 18-24 and even the Albany guys who are usually conservative were down to 10-15. I'm measuring 3 1/4 inches right now although I bet they will report 5 inches for some strange reason.
Alexander Pagano · Top Commenter · Lemoyne, Pennsylvania
Alex Sosnowski · Follow · Top Commenter · Senior Meteorologist / Writer at AccuWeatherWe began adjusting snowfall accumulations down in the Philly area around 9 pm Monday night. Prior to this time, there was still concern the strengthening storm would cause a band of heavy snow to set up farther to the west. It is always a battle of dry air coming southward and moisture coming in from the ocean with these coastal storms.
Tony Dacre · Community College of Baltimore Countyanother big DUD for 80% of areas that were to expect appreciable amounts of snowfall. pitiful forecasting. after years of watching these clippers that transfer its energy to another disturbance out in the ocean and off the coast of the Carolinas to form just basically a regular ole noreaster that they would have learned already that its just what it is a regular snow event not historic, not a blockbuster or snowmeggedan. the big boys come out of the gulf of mexico already developed and strengthening pulling moisture not only from the gulf but from the atlantic as it slowly rolls across the gulf states and makes that familiar turn by florida to come up the coast feeding off the warmth of the gulf steam while high pressure is parked above and off the coast of maine funneling in arctic air. unless this is happening don't expect no big bombs just big duds like we all got from this one.
Jeffrey L. Bass · Field Agent at CROSSMARKThe forecast was not great for the mid-Atlantic, nor parts of NJ, but this will be a historical storm for Long Island, and parts of MA - with some areas pushing 30" of snow. Parts of CT, RI, and MA, and ME may have snowfall totals that rank in the top 5 for 100 years, and with some winds approaching 80 miles. I'd say historic for those areas, but an average (and below average in DE) Noreaster for DE, NJ and NY.
JamieandZaira Martin · Top Commenter · University of the Nations
K.r. Qunynghamm · Top CommenterWhen I happened to awaken around 4:15AM and saw the roughly 5 inches here in Bloomfield, NJ I realized the predictions were way off. Even if we do get another snow shower later today, to reach the predicted levels it would have to snow into the mid morning hours to do it. Sensationalism all around. The stores made out like bandits with folks stocking up like it was going to last a week or more. Really, when's the last time a snowstorm kept you in for longer than 24 hours?- Patricia Stefaniak Tonkin · Top Commenter · Professor at College of Lake County
Thomas Joy · Berwick Area Senior High SchoolWhy can't we get accurate weather forecasts anymore. with all the new technology you why is it that forecasts 40 years ago were more accurate? People today panic over 4 to 5 inches of snow. they shut down schools, roads and state and federal facilities. 40 years ago, 4 feet of snow was a minor annoyance. You got out your shovel and broom, Cleaned away the snow, put on your snow tires and chains and went to work. People today are afraid of a little manual labor.- Eric Martin · Top Commenter · Works at Writer and Author of The Trading SocietyWeather forecasts were more accurate 40 years ago? Seriously?
Here in Chicago we just had the 48th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1967. You want to know what the forecast was the night before that storm hit (In the days way before computer modeling)?
"Rain or snow and a high of 40 degrees."
Today we would have several days notice that a storm would've been coming. We had at least three days of advance warning before the 2011 Snowpocalypse. I'd rather have the computer models and err on the side of caution.
http://chicagoweathercenter.com/ blog/ nor-easter-bears-down-on-no rtheast-on-48th-anniversar y-of-chicagos-benchmark-bl izzard-of-67 - JamieandZaira Martin · Top Commenter · University of the Nations
Theodore Rich · Top Commenter · Palm Harbor, FloridaI think the overall good was served. It was the perfect microcosm for the climated debate. Government officials believing wholeheartedly in climate and weather data and used it to control and harm the economy and peoples lives. And the single mother that couldn't get to work, the people that lost their freedom of movement and their ability to earn a living to feed their families, the money unnecessarily spent by the government that will inevitably lead to higher taxes and more money they have to spend....ahh so what. Those people don't get to have an opinion on their 'peer reviewed' studies. And don't think for a second that they wanted a massive storm as somehow evidence of their alarmist theories, just like they used Sandy and Katrina to ""prove"" their theory somehow it's ok for them to confuse climate and weather.
Mike Skibitsky · Follow · Newburgh Free AcademyYou have the lower hudson valley in 6 to 12 when most got 1 to 3. 1.5 in newburgh. Smh
Francis Williamson · Hartford ConservatoryBernie "RADAR" Raddo was flailing his arms around right here on this site, insisting with his "magical" analysis of the storm that we here in NW Ct were going to get 24 to 30 inches of snow. I watched this with my OWN eyes. Right up until 8PM on Monday night did he and hi colleagues continue with this prediction. MY OWN EYES also looked at the satellite and radar and could see that the storm was not heading nearly as far west as it needed to to give us and NYC the type of snowfall that "Radar" said was coming.
This is inexcusable to be so far off on a forecast. Millions of dollars were lost in business that did not need to be.
If they are not certain of the forecast then they should say so. Or how about this? Actually do their OWN forecasting like weathermen did in the good old days.- Jim McCabe · Top Commenter
Paul Berger · Top Commenter · Sheepshead Bay High SchoolForecast was quite accurate for central and eastern Long Island as well as for southern and eastern New England. Because the storm remained compact and moved steadily western section projections overdone. I for one am not complaining. I can deal with 8.5 inches I received. 20 or 22 inches is a whole different animal
Andrew Evans · Works at Self-EmployedThat not much snow Sault Ste. Marie is among the snowiest places in Michigan, receiving an average of 128 inches of snow a year with a record year where 209 inches fell. Sixty-two inches of snow fell in one five-day snowstorm, including 28 inches in 24 hours, in December 1995.
Rich Manna · Civil Engineer at MassDOTWe got less snow than forecast in Springfield, MA. Weather forecasters were calling for 18 to 24 inches. We ended up getting 10 inches. It was a good size storm, but not a blockbuster.
Kathy Pease · Top CommenterLove how the media tends to forget where the Northeast really is. This storm is definitely not over and we have over a foot of snow so far, with gusts up to 55 and drifts over 3 feet.
David Mozeshtam · Top Commenter · The Ohio State UniversityI live in Poughkeepsie, NY. The actual snowfall map above shows us in the 6-12 inches band. In reality, by noon Tuesday, we had no more than 2.5 inches.
James Marussich · The City College of New YorkAnother spectacular, media hype, gone wrong.
Shutting down, NYC, for an 8 inch snowstorm, was ridiculous.
Joseph Miller · Top CommenterThey are always playing the guessing game,Phil. 1-2 inches,not the 12-18innches they said,pie in the face AGAIN!
Bob Neubauer · Top CommenterMy problem with the forecasters is not that they got it so spectacularly wrong, but that they apparently never saw the possibility that things could turn out like they did, and continued to insist there could only be one result: Feet of snow in the Phila. area. Sure, this was a tough one to predict, as they are now crying. So why, then, didn't they say there's a good chance we'll get lots of snow, but there's also a good chance this other thing will happen and we'll get just an inch? Seems they only wanted to tell the story of Snowmageddon, so now they're justly being condemned for their screwup.
Lanza Landscaping · New Rochelle, New YorkIt's very understandable that the storm moved east and therefore glanced the major metro area in NYC but it wast nothing . What is frustrating at times is with the information available why not let people know that the major threat was over much sooner that released . I love the use of the newly formed Nowcast word . Hopefully the governor gets this new state of the art weather equipment gets up and running soon . Anything that can get these things more accurate can only be beneficial .- Tony Dacre · Community College of Baltimore Countystorm was still a dud even for new England standards. 30in snow is a lot of snow but it was 10 degrees out which means if it was 30 degrees out it would of been 10in of snow so an in. of moisture not a big storm just very strong winds from pressure gradient. the only thing they got right was calling for blizzard conditions in northern new England. Dc, balto, philly, Nj, Ny from 7in Ny to a half a snowflake in Dc.They should have just said major snow storm for NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. That would have been the right call there.
Maxi Gunderson · Top CommenterThis is all so silly. I live in northern United States. North Dakota, MInnesota & Wisconsin have real blizzards - with blowing snow every few years and below freezing temps. It's NOT a big deal. We don't all rush out to get milk and bread - as most people here, are prepared for any storm. We don't make the lead story on the national news for days on end when a storm occurs. The media and the east coast act like the world was coming to an end. We just have to shake our heads up here. Get a grip media and east coast people!- Eric Martin · Top Commenter · Works at Writer and Author of The Trading SocietyCame across this blog about why the storm predictions didn't pan out. Worth a read for all you 'armchair meteorologists' as you do your 'Monday morning forecasting.' Does mention how the 'king of models'-the European model-was predicting the storm to be a big one.
http://www.weathernj.com/how-every-meteorologist-inc luding-myself-got-it-wrong / 
Ray Boggs · Top Commenter · Mount San Antonio CollegeYet another reason why you should not lease an expensive solar system and instead should pay thousands less and buy a grid tie battery back up solar system.
Nearly every solar system that has been leased in the U.S is designed to turn itself off during a power outage, day or night, leaving you with absolutely no power. Not even even power to charge a cell phone, even during daylight hours. Buy a much lower priced backup power solar system. http://vimeo.com/117309612
Christopher Minot Granbery · Indian Mountain SchoolI remember hurricane Edna and Carol on Martha’s Vineyard. No warning at all; a lot of damage. So, yesterday I made baked potatoes, a stew, and hard boiled eggs. I have 12 gallons of water set aside. If they aren’t used in an outage or for this blizzard, I am only grateful. …. And the fat lady hasn’t sung yet: southern New Hampshire, 18” and still falling.
Kelly MacKinnon · University of MaineBased on what I can see out my window right now.....I can remember getting worse storms when I was a kid......And they were just called snow storms not Blizzards.......we have about 12 inches on the ground right now......and light snow. However.....this could go till early Wednesday morning here.
Jack Bushong Jr. · Follow · Top Commenter · Meteorologist - Hydrometeorological Analysis And Support at U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)Blizzard is an actual term characterized by snow with sustained heavy winds causing low visisbilities. Sustained winds of 35 mph with snow will be required for the National Weather Service to issue Blizzard Warnings. You can have a ground blizzard with clear skies and blowing snow only.
Ramona Randy WhelchelOH BUT DON"T worry we know the temps in 100 years will kill all life, See, that is what the "Models say" maybe when you can get say, get the next 24 right I will start to listen you on what it will be like in a 100 years. The story is the same just the player are new http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf. 
William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem BarIsn't it funny how climate change alarmists use time spans like "in 100 years...............", or "in 50 years.................", this or that will happen with the climate? Well 50 or 100 years is a long time to wait to see if these predictions pan out and once 2115 comes no one will even remember what they said about what the weather/climate on this planet will be like in 100 years and no one will be around to tell them what a bunch of crap their alarmist theories were.
Paul Downs · The Stickmen at Blueberry HillDear Grampa Winter it is time to Deliver. The mid atlantic region is cresting in the snow making season. With candles and bells - incense and song we implore you Nor Easter to please come along !
Wesley Joseph · Wheaton ILYour snowfall through Tuesday morning map is still inaccurate. I am in southeastern Dutchess county, NY and we are shown as being in the 6-12 range. We had 2 when I woke up this morning and we now have maybe 5.
Rodger EwingI am an old fart. from the 1967Blizzard inChicago. The forecast was for 40 and light rain. No computers and no models. We all survived.....now give me a chance to get out my violin.....
Kenneth Musillo · Top Commenter · Works at NYPDit seems the forecasts were more accurate in past yrs like the 1960s when computers were not used, the weather people used more knowledge than now when they rely on computers.- Eric Martin · Top Commenter · Works at Writer and Author of The Trading SocietyI'll re-post my reply to another user above to prove this wrong.
Weather forecasts were more accurate 40 years ago? Seriously?
Here in Chicago we just had the 48th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1967. You want to know what the forecast was the night before that storm hit (In the days way before computer modeling)?
"Rain or snow and a high of 40 degrees."
Today we would have several days notice that a storm would've been coming. We had at least three days of advance warning before the 2011 Snowpocalypse. I'd rather have the computer models and err on the side of caution.
http://chicagoweathercenter.com/ blog/ nor-easter-bears-down-on-no rtheast-on-48th-anniversar y-of-chicagos-benchmark-bl izzard-of-67 - Kenneth Musillo · Top Commenter · Works at NYPDEric Martin yes that will happen computers do give warnings in advance but here in nyc where I live ive seen a number of times that they were wrong, but for advaanced warning you are right I just don't think they are that accurate.
i appreciate your reply.
Steve Rondeau · College of Hard KnocksAnother cry wolf predicted snow fall.... Weak forecast at best. My fear is someday they will get it right and no one will pay attention.
Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversityWhen will the Northeast see a major warming trend? It would be nice to have seasonal temps.- David Mozeshtam · Top Commenter · The Ohio State University
Billy Budd · Top Commenter · U of HoustonThe snow total map is bogus. I live where it says we got 6-12" and we got less than 1".
AffiliateSwitchblade SoftwareI TOLD you this was way overhyped and BS.
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