Parts of Northeast Will Get Its Biggest Soaking in Months, But Is it Too Much of a Good Thing?

Brian Donegan
Published: October 21,2016
After suffering from drought conditions since late spring and summer, a promising forecast is finally in store for the Northeast over the next day or two. Periods of rain are expected through the first half of the weekend, and the rain could come down heavily at times.
The higher elevations of Upstate New York and northern New England will likely see rain change to snow as colder air infiltrates the region, but for everyone else it will be a cold, soaking rain.
The source of this incoming moisture is a deepening area of low pressure and its associated cold front that is approaching the Northeast, which likely won't clear the region until late Saturday or early Sunday.
(MORE: Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Outlook

The steadiest rain is expected to set up from western and central Pennsylvania into western, central and northern New York. A total of at least 2 or 3 inches of rain should fall in these areas.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday

(MORE: Fall Isn't Always Calm; Be Aware of These Weather Threats)
Flash flood guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) is rather high since it has been so dry over the past few months. On average, the areas expected to see the heaviest rain would need roughly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain in 6 hours or less to cause a flash flood. Rainfall rates this high are not expected this evening or on Saturday, so flooding is becoming less of a concern.
After this morning's heavy rainfall, parts of northwestern Pennsylvania may only need an inch or so of additonal rainfall to flood, but rainfall through Saturday should be rather light. Additional flooding there is possible especially where falling leaves clog storm drains.
Flash flooding was reported in central Pennsylvania Thursday night into Friday morning including Cogan Station where multiple water rescues were reported with residents trapped. Beech Creek, Pennsylvania also reported numerous flooded basements and roadways. On Thursday night, a mudslide washed over the off ramp to Interstate 80 near Needful, Pennsylvania.
On Friday morning, the Bronx River Parkway was closed in New York from Sprain Brook Parway to the county center in White Plains. The Hutchinson River Parkway southbound was also closed in Pelham.
(MORE: Latest Flooding Impacts)
This flooding is due to the locally heavy rain that occurred in the area, with 6 to 7 inches falling in less than 4 hours overnight Thursday from southern Centre County through the Lycoming Valley in Pennsylvania. Through Friday morning New Albany, Pennsylvania measured 7.48 inches of rain and Jersey Shore, Pennsylvania reported 6 inches.
On Friday evening, more than five inches of rain fell in Worcester, Massachusetts, causing flash flooding in central and eastern Massachusetts. This was Worcester's second wettest October day, and third wettest overall calendar day on record.
So, although the Northeast does need this rain, it may become excessive at times. Remember to never drive through flooded water, should any flash flooding develop.
The flood threat should wane going into the early part of the weekend.

Drought Relief?

Roughly three-quarters of the Northeast is currently classified under abnormally dry and drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
The areas in most dire need of rain are western New York and eastern New England, as the National Drought Mitigation Center labels them in an extreme drought, the second-worst category of drought.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Red indicates extreme drought, the second-worst drought classification. Orange indicates severe drought, one step below extreme. Tan indicates moderate drought, the lowest drought classification. Yellow indicates abnormally dry conditions.

One interesting sign of the drought is that the Chemung River at Elmira, New York, is expected to rise over 8 feet in the next 24 hours, but the river will still remain below minor flood stage since the water level was so low (around 1 foot) before this rain. Minor flood stage begins at 12 feet, but the current forecast only calls for the river to rise to just under 9 feet.
The amount of rain expected through Sunday will likely put a dent in these drought conditions across the Northeast. The drought isn't expected to be eliminated completely, but this will certainly be a step in the right direction.
The new drought monitor will be released by the National Drought Mitigation Center next Thursday.

MORE: Northeast Rainbows