Invest 99L, a Disturbance East of the Bahamas, Unlikely to Develop

October 21,2016
The time for Invest 99L, a disturbance east of the northwest Bahamas, to develop is beginning to run out.
(MORE: What is an Invest? | Hurricane Central)
As of Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had given the area of disturbed weather a 30 percent chance of development.

The showers and thunderstorms flaring up in Invest 99L are associated with a stretched-out, non-tropical low pressure system that has formed.

Infrared Satellite Image

Increasing upper-level winds, along with convection that has been either minimal or too spread out, have not allowed this system to develop enough to be considered a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
(MORE: What is a Subtropical Cyclone?)
The window for development of this system, though, is rapidly closing as a cold front will absorb this area by late Friday.
The next named storm in the Atlantic basin would be "Otto."

Wind Shear Analysis

Jet Stream Pattern Should Keep System Off U.S. East Coast

Given Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still picking up the pieces from Hurricane Matthew, any system in the western Atlantic Ocean is probably cause for concern.
However, Invest 99L is no direct threat to the U.S. East Coast.
It will accelerate to the northeast in response to a southward dip in the jet stream sweeping into the eastern United States.

All forecast guidance suggests the system will remain well off the East Coast, merging with a cold front south of the Canadian Maritimes by late Friday or Saturday.
This is also not a threat to Bermuda, as was Nicole last week. Some increase in showers and gusty winds is expected through Friday, but is occurring well ahead of this system.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Matthew's U.S. Impacts