Sunday, October 16, 2016

Bahamas Disturbance an Area to Watch For Development This Week

October 16,2016
An area of disturbed weather has developed near the Bahamas and over the Atlantic waters just east of there. Although development of this system is unlikely in the near-term future, there is some chance it could organize further later this week.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Medium Chance of Development, For Now

As of Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had given the area of disturbed weather a 40 percent chance of development during the next five days.
The showers and thunderstorms flaring up near and east of the Bahamas are due to a combination of a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level weather system approaching the area. This will continue a threat of locally heavy rain in parts of the Bahamas during the next few days, including some of the same areas that were just impacted by Hurricane Matthew.
(MORE: Matthew Recap)

Infrared Satellite Image
Upper-level winds are currently too strong for any significant development of this system during the near-term future.
Later this week, there is a chance that atmospheric conditions could become somewhat more favorable for tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system moves east of the Bahamas.

Wind Shear Analysis
Forecast guidance suggests that by late this week the disturbance may eventually move in a general northward direction away from the Bahamas. This will be in response to a southward dip in the jet stream moving into the eastern United States.
That jet stream dip could then interact with the moisture and energy from the disturbance currently near the Bahamas as it guides the system northward parallel to the East Coast.
It's too early to say what the extent of the impacts from this system could be down the road since there are so many variables in play. This includes whether an area of surface low pressure will ever develop, or if it will just remain a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
At the moment, it appears there is a chance that it could enhance moisture ahead of the aforementioned jet stream dip that will swing through the eastern states late this week.
Check back for updates the next few days on this system. As a side note, the next named storm in the Atlantic would be Otto.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Matthew's U.S. Impacts

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